特高坝及梯级水库群设计安全标准研究Ⅲ:梯级土石坝连溃风险分析  

Evaluations on the safety design standards for dams with extra height or cascade impacts.Part Ⅲ:Risk analysis of embankment break in cascade

作　　者：周兴波[1] 陈祖煜[2] 黄跃飞[3] 王琳[1] 李相南[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院岩土工程研究所,北京100048 [3]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《水利学报》2015年第7期765-772,共8页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB036400)

摘　　要：为承应本系列论文提出的建立在梯级水库群连续溃决风险分析基础上的特级土石坝分级标准,本文阐述了溃坝计算、洪水演进和连溃分析模型的基本原理,通过对冲刷模型、泄流渠水深计算方法等方面的改进,提出了一个数值分析稳定、对输入参数敏感性低的溃坝分析方法。通过实际工程算例分析表明,本文方法不仅适用于单坝溃决洪水分析,计算成果符合工程实际,而且对连溃分析也具有很好的操作性。溃坝风险分析可作为土石坝风险等级确定的重要手段,也为实施本系列论文建议的等级标准提供了基础支撑条件。In response to the classification system proposed in this series papers specifies higher class dams based on the risk analysis of their dam break in cascade, this paper reviews the fundamentals of dam breach and flood propagation theories and put forward a number of improvements regarding the soil ero- sion models and the flow depth calculations. As a result, a robust numerical method with less input parame- ter sensitivity has been made possible. A test example has been performed, demonstrating their applicability and credits for both single and cascade dam break flood analysis. This work and findings not only can be used as an important method to establish embankment dams risk class, but also provide supports for the classification system proposed in this series papers.

关 键 词：梯级水库 大坝溃决 连溃风险 风险预警 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]