用水变化动态结构分解分析模型研究Ⅱ:应用  

Dynamic structural decomposition analysis model of water use Evolution Ⅱ:Application

作　　者：杨中文[1] 许新宜[1] 陈午[1] 王红瑞[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《水利学报》2015年第7期802-810,共9页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：流域水资源循环过程模拟关键技术研究项目(2013BAB05B04);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279006)

摘　　要：根据前文提出的用水变化动态结构分解分析（SDA）模型,本文以1997—2007年中国用水为例,编制了中国15个部门水资源投入产出系列表,并对行业用水变化进行结构分解。验证参数和路径结果表明,该模型满足唯一性要求,各因子时间路径模拟效果很好,确保了结果的可靠性。模型成功分解较长期的（11年）用水变化过程并获得了动态化结果。分析结果表明,消费水平是各行业用水增长最重要的驱动力,而节水技术水平和最终需求结构对用水增长具有较强的抑制作用。三者在2002年前后的总体影响比例范围分别为：43.9%-44.2%、32.0%-39.1%和9.2%-18.6%。消费水平与最终需求结构的拉动作用促使第三产业用水增量最大。人口规模和经济系统效率对用水的影响相对较弱。实例研究表明,该模型能有效分解分析部门用水的长期变化,具有良好的适用性。According to the structural decomposition analysis （SDA） model proposed in the literature before, China＇s 15 sector water resources input-output tables during 1997-2007 were compiled firstly in this paper and the water use changes were decomposed to test the validity of the model. The estimated parameters meet the uniqueness of decomposition results, and the time paths simulated objectively capture the regula- tion of figures. Dynamic decomposition results have been obtained by successfully decomposing the 11 years water use evolution. The results indicate that the consumption level is the primary driving force behind the increasing water use within each sector, while the technological development and final demand structural de- composition show strongly inhibiting effects on water use growth. The total contribution rate ranges of the three factors during the former and latter 6 years were 44.2 % - 43.9 %, 32.0 % - 39.1% and 9.2 % - 18.6 % respectively. The largest water use increase within tertiary industry could be attributed to the effects of consumption level and final demand structure. However, the population scale and economic system effi- ciency remained small effects during the years. This case study reveals that the dynamic SDA model has good performance on long term water use analysis.

关 键 词：用水 SDA 动态模型 应用 中国 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]