基于马尔科夫优化模型的贵州省林业产业结构研究  

Investigation on Forestry Industrial Structure in Guizhou Province Based on Markov Optimization Model

作　　者：赵丹[1] 龙勤[2] 

机构地区：[1]兴义民族师范学院经济贸易学院,贵州兴义562400 [2]西南林业大学经济管理学院,昆明650224

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2015年第4期318-322,共5页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273215)

摘　　要：通过马尔科夫预测法建立林业产业最小偏离模型,基于1998～2013年贵州省林业三次产业产值数据,求得林业产业结构的马尔科夫状态转移概率矩阵并验证其准确性,预测出2014～2023年贵州省林业三次产业产值比例。以2020年的预测值为参照标准,计算出1998～2013年贵州省林业产业结构的有序度为0.48～0.82,表明近十多年来贵州省林业产业结构调整的方向是正确的,但仍需进一步进行调整,最后提出贵州省林业产业结构优化升级对策。The minimum deviation model of forestry industry was established by Markov forecasting method. Based on the output values of forestry industry from 1998 to 2013 in Guizhou province,the Markov state transition probability matrix of forestry industrial structure was obtained and its accuracy was verified. The output value proportions of forestry industry from 2014 to 2023 were predicted,the predictive value of 2020 was chosen as the reference standard,the order degrees of forestry industrial structure from 1998 to 2013 were calculated and were between 0. 48 and 0. 82. It shows that the adjustment direction of forestry industrial structure in Guizhou province during recent years was well,but it still needs to be further adjusted. At length the strategies to optimize the forestry industrial structure in Guizhou province are put forward.

关 键 词：林业产业结构 马尔科夫状态转移概率矩阵 有序度 

分 类 号：F326.25[经济管理—产业经济]