直面“中等收入陷阱”真问题——基于1962—2013年全球数据对“中等收入陷阱”的判断、认识  

Middle-income Trap: A Real Problem in Front of China Judgment and Understanding of Middle-income Trap Based on Global Data 1962-2013

作　　者：贾康[1] 苏京春[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家财政部财政科学研究所,北京海淀100036

出　　处：《中共中央党校学报》2015年第4期51-63,共13页Journal of The Party School of The Central Committee of The C.T.C

摘　　要："中等收入陷阱"作为一种统计现象,是真实世界中的"真问题",更是一个关乎中国现代化"中国梦"命运的顶级真问题。基于1962—2013年全球数据,我们试图对成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"经济体的路径进行研究并得到相关结论:成功者跨越"上中等收入陷阱"持续时间均值为15.9年,这期间GDP增长率均值为5.08%。中等收入成员在试图摆脱"下中等收入陷阱"和"上中等收入陷阱"的过程中,都不乏出现"晋级—退出—再晋级"的反复。直面"中等收入陷阱"这一真问题,中国应重视不可忽略的时代元素与基本国情:产业革命加速更迭带来的升级换代的"紧迫压力"、全球经济发展格局中先发经济体的钳制、特定的能源资源与生态环境制约、人口与教育结构的挑战、文化与意识形态的影响以及特别关键的制度变革探索的成败,这些方面都是我国谨防落入"中等收入陷阱"的经济追赶—赶超过程中所必须面对的重大现实问题。As a statistical phenomenon, middle-income trap is a real problem in reality, and even a top level problem related to the realization of the Chinese dream. Based on global data 1962-2013, we tried to find out the path of those who have successfully gone through middle-income trap and reached the following conclusions： it took an average of 15.9 years for those successful countries to cross the top-level middle-income trap, and during which the average GDP growth rate was 5.08%.During which the average GDP growth rate was 9.87%. China is now facing the challenge of crossing the high-level middle-income trap. While countries trying to escape from the top and low level middle-income trap, they quite often went through the loops of escape-fall back again- and escape again. Facing up to the real problem of middle-income trap, we shall pay attention to the non-ignorable time element and fundamental realities of the country： the urgent pressure of upgrading brought by accelerated industrial revolution, the clamp and constraints by developed economies among the global economic development patterns, constraints of specific energy resources and ecological environmental, challenges of population and education structure, the influence of culture and ideology as well as the failures of the critical institutional changes, all of which are major practical issues for China to escape from the middle income trap.

关 键 词：中等收入陷阱 经济格局 基本国情 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]