乘数法、捕获再捕获法和改良Delphi法估计吸毒人群的吸毒率  

Prevalence Rate of Drug User Estimated With Methods of Multiplier,Capture-recapture and Improved Delphi

作　　者：李平[1,2,3] 秦光明[4] 邓红霞 陈均 王勇胜 王丽艳[2] 张大鹏[2] 刘刚[7] 宁传艺[1,2] 梁浩[1] 吕繁[2] 邵一鸣 

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学公共卫生学院,南宁530021 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心 [3]枣庄市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病防治科 [4]四川省疾病预防控制中心 [5]凉山州布拖县卫生局 [6]乐山市市中区疾病预防控制中心 [7]四川省卫生厅

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2015年第7期493-496,共4页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：卫生部科技司高危人群规模估计方法学应用基金资助项目(MA 2002-03-1)

摘　　要：目的探讨乘数法、捕获再捕获法及改良Delphi法在吸毒率估计中的应用。方法在四川省乐山市中区同时应用乘数法、捕获再捕获法及改良Delphi法对其市中区现有吸毒人群的吸毒率进行了估计。结果得到现有吸毒人群吸毒估计率：乘数法为0.29%∽0.38%;捕获再捕获法为0.30%（95%CI：0.22%~0.38%,分层估计）~0.32%（95%CI：0.22%~0.39%,不分层估计）;改良Delphi法为0.45%（0.36%,0.46%）。总体估计结果约为公安登记在册估计率（0.20%）的1.5~2.5倍。结论改良Delphi法估计率最高,乘数法估计率较高于捕获再捕获法吸毒率95%可信区间的下限估计。3种估计方法一定程度上可满足应用需要,产生相对有效的吸毒估计率,但估计方法仍需进一步改进。Objective To study the applications of Multiplier,Capture- recapture（ CR） and Improved Delphi（ ID） methods in estimating the prevalence rate of active drug user. Methods Multiplier,CR and ID methods were conducted to estimate the prevalence rate of active drug users in Leshan downtown,Sichuan province.Results The range of rates with method of the Multiplier varied from 0. 29% to 0. 38% in the Leshan downtown;method of CR showed overall estimates of approximately0. 30%（ 95% CI： 0. 22%- 0. 38%, stratified estimate） and 0. 32%（ 95% CI： 0. 22%- 0. 39%,un-stratified estimate） and ID method generated rates of0. 45%（0. 36%,0. 46%）. Conclusion The prevalence estimated with ID method is the highest; multiplier estimates are higher than the lower bounds of 95% CI of the CR estimates. The three methods can all be applied to estimate the population size of active drug users and yield relative,effective and reliable drug use prevalence rates. Nevertheless,some problems in methodology and practice need to be considered in further application.

关 键 词：艾滋病 吸毒率 估计 乘数法 捕获再捕获法 改良Delphi法 

分 类 号：R161[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] R512.91