储层不确定性建模研究进展  

Progress of reservoir uncertainty modeling

作　　者：戴危艳 李少华[2] 谯嘉翼 刘诗宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]长江大学油气资源与勘探技术教育部重点实验室,武汉430100 [2]长江大学地球科学学院,武汉430100

出　　处：《岩性油气藏》2015年第4期127-133,共7页Lithologic Reservoirs

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"点坝砂体内部非均质性的层次建模法"(编号:41272136);非常规油气湖北省协同中心创新基金项目"页岩气储量计算的概率体积法"(编号:HBUOG-2014-14)联合资助

摘　　要：由于资料的不完备性及储层的非均质性,使得储层及其属性分布预测结果存在较大的不确定性。随机建模技术通过改变随机模拟路径并建立多个实现来刻画地质模型中的不确定性。储层不确定性建模是在随机建模的基础上发展起来的一项新技术,更加强调从数据获取、建模参数设置到模型响应各个阶段的不确定性表征与评价。在大量文献调研的基础上,对储层建模过程中的不确定性来源进行了分类,对储层建模中的局部不确定性、空间不确定性和响应不确定性进行了系统的阐述,并提出了一些降低不确定性的方法。现阶段储层不确定性的研究主要集中在2个方面,即不确定性评价和如何降低不确定性,而针对不确定性建模方法的研究有待进一步加强。Due to the incomplete information and reservoir heterogeneity, it is unable to accurately determine the distribution of reservoir and its properties. Stochastic modeling technique can characterize the uncertainty of geologic model by generate multiple realizations through changing the stochastic simulation path. Reservoir uncertainty modeling is a new technology developed on the basis of the stochastic modeling, and it paid more emphasis on the characterization and evaluation of uncertainty that resulted from data acquisition, modeling parameter and response of models. Based on a large number of relevant references, this paper classified the sources of uncertainty in the process of reservoir modeling, expounded the local uncertainty, spatial uncertainty and response uncertainty in reservoir modeling, and put forward some methods to reduce the uncertainty. The research of the reservoir uncertainty mainly focused on the aspects of uncertainty evaluation and uncertainty reduction at present, and the research of uncertainty modeling methods should be strengthen.

关 键 词：非均质性 随机模拟 储层地质模型 不确定性 

分 类 号：TE121.15[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]