海岛地形下风暴潮单站统计预报方法研究:以舟山市为例  

Statistical forecasting of storm surge under single station observations in Zhoushan island terrain

作　　者：亢兴[1] 张蓓[1] 堵盘军[1] 徐婷婷[1] 张慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局东海预报中心,上海200120

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第4期26-33,共8页Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：2013年度国家海洋公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201305031)

摘　　要：基于舟山市代表验潮站定海、岱山、嵊山3站逐时潮位资料和1982—2011年CMA-STI西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集,发现引起舟山台风风暴增水较为严重且频次最高的为浙南登陆型和近海北上或转出型两类台风路径;分析了这两类路径的台风特征(如强度、移速、距离等)和潮时与舟山市风暴增水强度和类型之间的相关关系.针对不同的路径类型选取影响风暴增水预报的主控因子,基于多元非线性回归方法,构建了舟山市风暴潮单站统计预报模型.根据台风预测特征信息可以预报出舟山的风暴增水幅度,经0509号"麦莎"、1109号"梅花"、1214号"天秤"的实际预报检验效果良好.According to Zhoushan tidal observations including Dinghai,Daishan,Shengshan,and CMA-STI tropical cyclone best tracking data from 1982 to 2011,we found two kinds of typical typhoon path caused the heaviest and most frequently storm surge. One is landing in southern Zhejiang,and the other is northward moving and near-shore turning. Based on the above two kinds of typhoon data,we analyzed the relationship between characteristics of the typhoon（ such as strength,moving speed,distance factor etc.） and tide and the storm surge intensity and type. Using the multivariate nonlinear regression analysis,we choose the most relevant factors to create a statistical model for storm surge forecasting. It showed the good results through the actual cases appling such as matsa,muifa and tembin.

关 键 词：单站 风暴潮 统计预报 海岛地形 

分 类 号：P731.2[天文地球—海洋科学]