恐怖袭击事件的防御资源分配问题  

Defense Resource Optimal Allocation Problem of Sudden Terrorism Attack Incident

作　　者：丁雪枫[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学管理学院,上海200444

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第7期1111-1115,共5页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究项目(13YJC63-23);上海市优秀青年教师科研专项基金;上海市博士后科研资助项目(11R21416300);中国博士后科学基金(2012M510892);国家自然科学基金(71272047);浦江人才资助项目(13PJC100)

摘　　要：在考虑防御资源可能有限的情况下,提出将零和博弈的思想运用于恐怖袭击事件的风险评价问题中.采用定量分析方法,利用目标损失概率模型对各被袭目标的有限资源配置进行决策,分析模型中各关键参数的确定方法,探讨袭击资源、防御资源的最优分配方案.以城市地铁站点为例,对各站点风险等级定性评估,计算和比较不同防御资源下各目标的损失概率,确定有限防御资源下目标资源分配的最优方案,并验证所提出方案的实用性和有效性.In consideration of limited defense resources,an idea based on zero-sum game was proposed to solve the problem of risk assessment for terrorism attacks. With quantitative analysis,a damage probability model was used to make decisions for attack targets under the limited resources.By analyzing the calculation method of key parameters of the model,an optimal resource allocation scheme was achieved.Finally,taking the target for urban subway stations as an example,through risk level qualitative assessment of the stations,loss probabilities of each target were calculated and compared under different defense resources to determine the optimal resource allocation scheme.The results show that the proposed scheme is practical and effective.

关 键 词：恐怖袭击 零和博弈 袭击资源 防御资源 风险等级 

分 类 号：F237[经济管理—会计学]