中国气候变化预估数据在河北地区的检验分析  

A test analysis on China climate change projection data in Hebei area

作　　者：郝立生[1,2,3] 向亮[4] 张婧[4] 

机构地区：[1]天津市气象局,天津300074 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃兰州730020 [3]中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [4]河北省气候中心,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2015年第3期362-370,共9页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201201);国家气候中心短期气候预测创新团队基金

摘　　要：应用观测资料对中国地区预估数据集进行检验分析。结果表明:1)7月降水量,区域模式在张家口南部桑洋河盆地和北部坝上地区的模拟值偏大,而在北京东边兴隆高山区和东南沿海地区的模拟值明显偏小。2)7月最高气温,在北京东边兴隆高山区和东部平原的模拟值明显偏高,而在张家口南部桑洋河盆地和太行山东侧的模拟值偏低。3)1月最低气温,在北京东边兴隆高山区、太行山北段高山区和东部平原地区的模拟值偏高,而在张家口南部桑洋河盆地和太行山东侧的模拟值偏低。4)无论是对降水还是气温,由于全球模式的空间分辨率偏低、很难描述河北地区的地形特征,所以模拟结果很差。由于区域气候模式的分辨率提高、对河北地区地形特征的描述有了改进,所以模拟效果有明显改善;但受分辨率所限,它对局部地形如兴隆高山、桑洋河盆地、太行山北部高山等地形特征的描述不是很好,造成模拟结果在这些地区出现系统性偏差,因此应用这些数据时需加以订正。Using the station data in Hebei area,a test analysis is maded on simulated results from China climate change projection data provided by National Climate Center. Results showthat： 1） July precipitation simulated by the regional model（ Reg MV） exists systematic deviation,which is larger in southern Zhangjiakou-Sangyang River basin and northern Zhangjiakou-Dam Plateau,but significantly smaller in Xinglong mountains east to Beijing and southeast coastal areas. 2） July maximum temperature simulated by Reg MV exists systematic deviation,which is significantly higher in Xinglong mountains east to Beijing and eastern plain region,but lower in southern Zhangjiakou-Sangyang River basin and eastern Taihang Mountains. 3） January minimum temperature simulated by Reg MV exists systematic deviation,which is higher in Xinglong mountains east to Beijing,North Taihang Mountains,and eastern plain region,but lower in southern Zhangjiakou-Sangyang River basin and eastern Taihang Mountains. 4） Theglobal model is difficult to describe terrain features of Hebei due to its lowspatial resolution. Whether precipitation or temperature is simulated,the results are poor. The regional climate model has a certain improvement in describing terrain features of Hebei by improving the resolution,so its simulations have been improved significantly. However,due to the limit of the spatial resolution,such local terrain as Xinglong Mountains,Sangyang River basin,northern Taihang Mountains and other terrain are not well characterized,so the simulated results appear systematic deviation in these areas. It needs an improvement for the application of this set of data in Hebei area.

关 键 词：气候模式 数值模拟 预估资料 河北地区 检验分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]