ATMS微波资料特征及其对台风路径预报的影响  

Characteristics of ATMS data and their impact on typhoon track forecast

作　　者：刘健文[1,2] 蔡则帅 闵锦忠[1,3] 黄江平[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院 [2]北京航空气象研究所 [3]气象灾害教育部重点实验室(南京信息工程大学) [4]93741部队气象台

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2015年第3期421-427,共7页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41175046);装备预先研究项目(110151322043)

摘　　要：采用2012年8月1—30日ATMS(Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder)卫星微波资料,在WRFDA系统中进行资料特征统计分析以及偏差订正试验。针对2012年8月第13号台风"启德"、第14号台风"天秤"和第15号台风"布拉万",检验同化ATMS卫星微波资料对台风路径预报的影响。结果表明:偏差订正前,ATMS除个别窗区通道和湿度通道偏差大于对应AMSUA/MHS通道外,其余通道偏差均小于后者;与AMSUA/MHS相比,ATMS偏差随扫描位置的变化较小且平滑,ATMS96个扫描点的资料均可用;ATMS窗区通道偏差最大,温度中层通道偏差最小;使用ATM S资料导出的偏差订正系数,可减小温度和湿度通道偏差,相比于直接使用NOAA-18偏差订正系数,可改善台风路径和最低气压预报;个例研究表明,同化中加入ATMS资料后可使台风路径预报偏差降低31%。Based on the ATMS（ Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder） satellite microwave data during 1—30 August 2012,this paper analyzes the characteristics of data and does the bias correction tests in WRFDA,and verifies the impact of assimilation ATMS data on track forecasts of typhoons Kaitak（ the 13rd）,Tembin（ the 14th） and Bolaven（ the 15th） in August 2012. Results showthat,before the bias correction,the deviations for most ATMS sounding channels are less than those for corresponding AMSUA / MHS channels,except for some windowchannels and humidity channels. The bias variations across scan position for ATMS channels are less than those for corresponding AMSUA / MHS channels,so the data from all 96 scan positions for ATMS channels can be used. The biases are maximum for ATMS windowchannels and minimum for ATMS channels 6—10. After using the bias correction coefficients derived from ATMS microwave data,it can reduce the biases for temperature channels and humidity channels and improve the prediction of track and minmum pressure of typhoon compared to di-rectly use the bias correction coefficients from NOAA-18. Case studies showthat assimilation of ATMS satellite microwave data can improve the prediction of typhoon tracks.

关 键 词：ATMS 卫星资料同化 偏差订正 台风 

分 类 号：P407.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.8