社会保障影响居民资产配置的模型及分析  

Modeling and Analysis of the Impact of Social Insurance on Individual Asset Allocation

作　　者：周晋[1] 黄平[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2015年第4期524-529,共6页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金资助项目(12YJC840065)

摘　　要：社会保障因素会改变居民对未来的预期,从而对其资产配置决策有着重要的影响。在相关文献综述的基础上,以跨期的消费和投资资产组合理论为基础,将社会保障因素和预防性储蓄因素融入现有资产配置模型框架中,并对两期模型进行求解和分析。实证结果表明,未来消费预期是居民进行预防性储蓄行为的格兰杰原因。本文主要的创新点在于,建立了考虑社会保障的资产配置模型,阐述了个人资产配置与社会保障水平之间的内在数量关系。Social insurance may change individuals＇ future expectation thus has important influence on their asset allocation decisions.Based on the review of the previous research and inter-temporal consumption-investment model,we include in this model the factors of social insurance and precautionary saving.Then we solve and analyze this model in two periods.The empirical result demonstrates that the future consumption expectation is the Granger cause of individual precautionary saving.The main contribution is the new model with the factors of social insurance and the inherent quantitative relation between social insurance and individual asset allocation.

关 键 词：社会保障 资产配置 消费预期 预防性储蓄 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]