基于灰色关联度的台风灾害影响因素分析  

Analysis on Typhoon Disasters Influencing Factors Based on Grey Correlation

作　　者：刘晓庆[1] 陈仕鸿[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院,广东广州510521 [2]广东外语外贸大学,广东广州510006

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2015年第7期32-33,48,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(重点项目2010B031900041和2012A030200012);热带海洋环境国家重点实验室自主研究课题(LTO-ZZ1201);中科院南海海洋研究所1.3.5突破项目

摘　　要：台风灾害长期危害我国沿海地区群众的生命和财产,应重视其预防和灾害评估工作。然而台风灾害的影响因素众多,且关系复杂,该文采用灰色相对关联分析方法来确定相关因素对台风灾害影响力的强弱程度。先简单介绍了灰色相对关联度的概念和计算方法,然后以浙江省为研究对象计算台风灾害影响因子与灾害的灰色关联度。分析结果表明,台风的总降雨量与灾害相关性强于最低气压和最大风速;总体而言,台风灾害与单个影响因子的关联关系都不强,而是与众多影响因子存在复杂的非线性关系。Typhoon disasters threats people＇s life and property in Chinese coastal areas, so we should pay attention to its prevention and disaster assessment. However, there are many factors influ- ence on typhoon disasters and the rela- tionships are very complex.This paper use gray correlation analysis method to determine the relative strength of the ex- tent of factors influence the typhoon dis- aster. Firstly, the concept and calculation methods of gray relative correlation were introduced, and then the degree of asso- ciation of the influencing factors taking Zhejiang typhoon disasters as the object was calculated,The results show that the correlation between typhoons disaster and total rainfall is stronger than the minimum pressure and maximum wind speed. Overall, the correlation between typhoon disaster and a single factor af- fecting the association is not strong, and there is a complicated nonlinear rela- tionship between typhoon disasters and the impact factors.

关 键 词：台风灾害 影响因素 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]