马铃薯中长期供求平衡研究  

A SUPPLY AND DEMAND EQUILIBRIUM FORECAST OF POTATO IN MEDIUM AND LONG TERM

作　　者：米健[1,2] 罗其友[1] 高明杰[1] 张海鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100005

出　　处：《中国农业资源与区划》2015年第3期27-34,共8页Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning

基　　金：农业部"现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金"(编号:nycytx-15);国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国耕地复种指数的时空变化及其社会经济影响因素研究"(编号:71403291)资助

摘　　要：文章首先根据1982-2012年的马铃薯产量和消费量的数据,对马铃薯生产和消费的长期趋势及其结构进行了分析：1982-2011年,马铃薯总产量和总消费量基本保持同步变化,除2006年总产量超过总消费量1 885万t之外,其余年份总产量和总消费量的差额都在250万t之内,从比例上看,供求缺口在多数年份不到总产量或总消费量的3%,我国马铃薯基本是国内自产自销,进出口的总量都不大。其次,对1982-2012年马铃薯总产量、总消费量数据做自相关与偏自相关分析,并做一阶差分,采用传统时间序列分析和移动平均（ARMA）模型相结合,建立马铃薯总产量和总消费量的时间序列模型;进而采用时间序列模型,对马铃薯的中长期生产和消费进行了预测：马铃薯供给基本平衡,供给略大于需求,供求之间的差额占总量的比例非常小,约为2%。2020年,马铃薯总消费量为1.0 900亿t,马铃薯总产量为1.1 125亿t,供给大于需求225万t;2030年,马铃薯的总产量为1.3 585亿t,马铃薯的总消费量为1.3 280亿t,供给大于需求305万t。Firstly,according to the production and consumption data of potato from 1982 to 2012,the paper analyzed the long- term trend and the structure of the production and consumption of potato; from 1982 to 2011,the total output of potato and total consumption remained synchronized changes,except in 2006 when the total output beyond the total consumption 18. 85 million tons,the difference between the total output and the total consumption is less than 2. 5 million tons,and in percentage terms this number is just 3% of total consumption or the output in most years. Most of potato is domestic consumption in China and the total amount of import and export are not high.Secondly,this paper conduct autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation analysis of potato production and consumption data from 1982 to 2012; and after first- order difference,combining the traditional time series analysis with ARMA model,the time series model of potato production and total consumption are set separately. And then,using time series model,this paper forecast the production and consumption of potato in medium and long term. The main conclusions are as follows： the supply and demand of potato will be a basic balance; supply is slightly bigger than demand and the proportion of the difference total is just about 2% in total supply. In 2020,the total consumption of potatoes is 109 million tons,while the potato production is 111. 3 million tons,the difference between them is 2. 3 million tons; in 2030,the total output of potato is 135. 85 million tons and the total consumption of potatoes is 132. 80 million tons; the difference is 3. 05 million tons.

关 键 词：马铃薯 中长期 供求平衡 预测 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]