贸易条件波动对经常项目均衡的非线性HLM效应——基于PVM模型的再检验  

Non–linear HLM Effect of Terms of Trade on Current Account:An Empirical Analysis Based on PVM Model

作　　者：卞学字[1] 范爱军[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2015年第4期17-26,共10页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：范爱军主持的教育部规划基金项目"国际技术扩散对中国制造业技术进步和产业结构升级的影响研究"(10YJA790044)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：通过对标准PVM模型的进一步拓展与改进,本文推导出考察贸易条件是否具有非线性HLM效应的实证方程。在此基础上对我国年度样本数据的分析结果表明,长期内价格贸易条件的改善与恶化都具有改善经常项目的作用,但贸易条件下降的短期影响具有更强的波动性。因此,HLM效应是存在的,但表现出显著的非线性特征。这与我国属于贸易条件恶化型的增长模式并不矛盾,贸易条件改善并不必然导致经常项目收支恶化,而且有助于保持其持续平稳增长。此外,实际总产出与实际汇率及其非线性项也具有很强的解释力。By further developing and improving the theoretical PVM model, an econometric equation is deduced to test the existence of the non- linear HLM effect of terms of trade on the current account of China. The empirical analysis shows that both positive and negative fluctuations of terms of trade improve the current account in the long run. However, the negative disturbance shows a more volatile characteristic in the short run compared with the positive shock. There- fore, the HLM effect is proved in this paper with a significant non- linear char- acteristic, which does not contradict the fact that China is in a development pat- tern of worsening terms of trade. Improvement of terms of trade can help main- tain a sustainable robust growth of the current account instead of worsening it. In addition, the total output and real exchange rate with its non- linear terms can be considerably explanatory.

关 键 词：贸易条件 经常项目 HLM效应 PVM模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—产业经济]