基于“湖泊效应”模型的辽宁省海岸带陆地范围测度及其时空分异分析  

Measurement of Land Range and Spatial-temporal Difference Analysis of Coastal Zone in Liaoning Province Based on the "Lake Effect" Model

作　　者：孙才志[1] 孙冰[1] 郭建科[1] 王泽宇[1] 李博[1] 刘锴[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《地理科学》2015年第7期805-813,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地课题(12JJD190032);国家自然科学基金(41101114;41201114;41301129);辽宁省教育厅创新团队课题(WT2014005)资助

摘　　要：目前国内外对海岸带的界定尚不存在统一说法,虽然海岸带向海范围的界定相对一致,但海岸带向陆范围差异较大。而海岸带向陆范围的界定是海岸带空间合理规划、海岸带区域综合承载力准确评估的重要保证,对海岸带的相关研究起着重要的作用。此外,传统的海岸带界定方法均没有考虑海岸带的动态性及空间差异性,因此,基于Bass扩散模型原理,构建了＂湖泊效应＂模型,提出了等辐射力曲线的概念,设计了可行的海岸带陆地范围量化方法。以辽宁省为例,结合2001~2012年人口与经济的面板数据,通过GIS与1st Opt软件平台,测度了辽宁省6个沿海城市的海岸带陆地范围,并对其进行了时空差异分析。运用Gompertz模型,预测了辽宁省2013~2020年的海岸带范围,分析了其空间差异趋势。结果表明：1海洋的辐射带动力持续增长,辽宁省海岸带范围随着时间在稳步向内陆扩张;2区域经济较发达的地区,海岸带范围也较广;3大连市和营口市是辽宁省海岸带的增长极;4辽宁省未来8 a海岸带范围将继续向内陆扩张而空间差异将逐步缩小。There is no unified view about the delimitation of coastal zone at home and abroad currently. Though the range of the coastal zone to the sea is relatively the same, the range of the coastal zone to the land differs enormously. The delimitation of coastal zone＇s range to the land is an important assurance to rationally plan the expanse of coastal zone and to accurately evaluate the carrying capacity of the zone, which plays a vital role in relative study of coastal zone. Meanwhile, traditional methods about the delimitation of coastal zone ignored the time dynamics and space variability of coastal zone. And there are obvious deficiencies of traditional methods about the delimitation of coastal zone. Thus, on the basis of the principle of Bass new product diffusion model, this thesis creates the＂Lake effect＂model, and designs a doable method to measure the range of coastal zone to the land, overcomes the shortcomings of existing coastal zone theories. And this thesis puts forward the concept of the radiation force curve, summarizes three basic characteristics of the radiation force curve. Taking Liaoning Province as an example, used GIS to do the multiple ring buffer and overlaid with the Liaoning provincial administrative area, combined with panel data of population and economy from 2001 to2012, this thesis has applied 1st Opt software platform to measure the coastal zone＇s land range of the six coastal cities of Liaoning Province and did analysis of spatial and temporal difference of them. The Gompertz model was used to predict the coastal zone in Liaoning Province from 2013 to 2020 and to analyse the spatial differences in trend. Research results show that： 1） Bohai＇s radiation driving force continues to grow and the coastal zone in Liaoning Province is expanding steadily to inland over time; 2） The regions with more developed economy have a wider range of coastal zone;3） Dalian and Yingkou City are the growth pole of coastal zone in Liaoning Province;4） In next eight years, the coastal zone

关 键 词：湖泊效应 BASS模型 海岸带陆地范围 时空分异 

分 类 号：P748[天文地球—海洋科学]