因果关系与概率的最初联姻——论休谟的概然性思想  

The Original Connection of Causality and Probability:On Hume's Thoughts of Probability

作　　者：赵楠楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学哲学系,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《自然辩证法通讯》2015年第4期50-56,共7页Journal of Dialectics of Nature

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"归纳悖论与确证逻辑新探"(项目编号:11BZX061)

摘　　要：休谟问题与因果关系的逻辑关联,因果关系与概然性的内在交织,使得概然性与休谟问题、因果关系三者息息相关,这是休谟的概然性思想与洛克的概然性思想的最大区别,也是休谟论概然性的独特致思路径。在休谟哲学中,由休谟问题与因果关系所析出的概然性理论,是概率理论的原初状态,它实现了因果关系与概率的第一次联姻,也开辟了一条用概率来描述因果关系的新路径。The logical association between the Hume Issue and causality and the interplay between causality and probability make probability connecting the Hume Issue and causality tightly. This is the biggest difference between the thoughts of probability of Hume and Locke, and Hume＇s special way to think about probability. In Hume＇s philosophy, the probability thought, coming from the analysis of the Hume Issue and causality, is the original state of probability theory, and then is going to unite causality and probability for the fi rst time and open up a path to display causality through probability.

关 键 词：概然性 概率 休谟问题 因果关系 

分 类 号：N0[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]