湖北中稻气候适宜度指标构建及其对产量影响的定量评估与应用  

Index Construction of Climatic Suitability on Middle-season Rice in Hubei Province and Quantitative Evaluation and Application of Its Effect on Yield

作　　者：易灵伟 杨爱萍[2] 刘文英[2] 蔡哲[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省华中农业大学植物科学技术学院气象学研究室,武汉430070 [2]江西省气象局应急预警中心,南昌330000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2015年第23期109-115,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：江西省科技计划项目--科技支撑计划(农业领域)"土壤墒情资料应用与农业旱渍涝预警预报系统研究"(20112BBF60051)

摘　　要：为合理评价湖北地区中稻生长发育过程中气候条件的适宜度,服务于政府决策部门以及农事工作人员及时合理的开展田间管理,达到合理利用气候资源的目的。利用湖北中稻生育期内逐旬的气象资料和相关农业气象指标,构建中稻生育期内旬际日照时数、平均温度、降水适宜度的隶属函数,计算3项气候要素适宜度的逐旬效应及其对产量的影响,并得出湖北中稻气候适宜度变化特征及对产量影响的模型。结果表明:中稻全生育期内,湖北省多年平均状况的光、温、水气候要素的适宜度均为较适宜,其中以气温适宜度为最佳,日照适宜度次之,降水适宜度最小,而综合适宜度围绕多年平均值波动,且振幅较小。同时,选定的4个气候地区的综合适宜度在中稻生长发育前期均表现为较适宜,后期受阶段性高温干旱以及暴雨的影响,适宜度较低,与实际情况相吻合;产量模型模拟的1990—2010年产量影响模拟值与实际气象产量的相关性显著。表明采用综合适宜度模型构建的产量预估模型,对定量评价光温水3项气候要素对产量的影响具有一定的准确性和可行性。The study aims to evaluate the suitability of climate conditions during the growth and development process of the middle-season rice in Hubei, serve government decision-making departments to carry out timely and reasonable field management, and finally to achieve the purpose of rational utilization of climate resources. The meteorological data and related agricultural meteorological indexes during the middle-season rice growing period by every ten days of Hubei were used to construct the membership function of ten day sunshine hours, average temperature and precipitation suitability degree during the rice growing period, three elements of climatic suitability for each ten day effect and their effect on yield were calculated, thus to obtain the variation characteristics of the climatic suitability degree of Hubei middle-season rice and build the model of the effects on yield. The results showed that： during the whole growth period of middle-season rice, light, temperature and water suitability were averagely suitable for many years, temperature suitability degree was the best, then was the sunshine suitability degree, precipitation suitability degree was the smallest, comprehensive suitability was remarkably stable, and it fluctuated around the average for many years. At the same time, comprehensive suitability of the 4 climatic regions selected were rather high in the early stage of middle-season rice growth, but low in the late stage of growth influenced by periodical high temperature and drought, and this was consistent with the actual situation. Simulation model of yield value from 1990 to 2010 was correlated significantly with the actual meteorological yield. It showed that comprehensive suitability model had a certain influence on the accuracy and feasibility of quantitative evaluation of three climatic factors： light, temperature and water.

关 键 词：中稻 气候适宜度 定量评估 指标 模型 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]