从汇率二重性看中美人民币汇率之争——中国真的是汇率操纵者吗  

Dual Characteristics of Exchange Rate and the Dispute on RMB Between China and the US——Is China a Currency Manipulator?

作　　者：张欣 孙刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国大连高级经理学院 [2]东北财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2015年第8期48-58,共11页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010);辽宁省教育厅科学研究一般项目(W2014286)的资助

摘　　要：人民币汇率问题一直是中美之间最具争议性的话题之一。本文从当代汇率的二重性特征出发,基于二重性汇率决定理论,运用双边随机边界模型对人民币均衡汇率水平以及政府对人民币汇率的干预行为进行实证分析。研究结果表明,政府干预并非导致人民币汇率偏离均衡水平的主导因素;在政府的干预下,人民币实际汇率不仅未被低估,反而存在一定程度的高估,这一现象在国际金融危机时期尤为明显。因此,中国政府虽然在一定程度上对人民币汇率进行了干预,但是不能将其认定为汇率操纵者。RMB exchange rate has been one of the most controversial issues between China and the US. We conduct empirical analysis on the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB and China＇s currency intervention by using Two-tier Stochastic Frontier Model which is based on the dual characteristics of exchange rate and corresponding exchange rate determination theory. Results show that, government intervention is not the main factor which make RMB exchange rate deviate from the equilibrium level. Furthermore, it has obvious tendentiousness to appreciate the currency. Due to government intervention, the real exchange rate of RMB has been overvalued to a certain extent, which is contrary to the blames from some foreign scholars, and it is obvious during the international financial crisis. Therefore, the Chinese government has intervened RMB exchange rate in a certain degree, but China cannot be regarded as a currency manipulator.

关 键 词：汇率二重性 汇率决定 汇率操纵 双边随机边界模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]