北京2013年男男性行为人群基数评估  

Estimation on cardinal number of men who have sex with men in Beijing,2013

作　　者：傅颖[1] 阮玉华[2] 周云华[1] 高歌[1] 施佳琛[1] 杨少春[1] 陈科锦[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学医学部公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,江苏苏州215123 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心传染病预防控制国家重点实验室

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2015年第8期1063-1065,共3页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81273188)

摘　　要：目的 估计北京市男男性行为人群（MSM）基数,为制定北京市MSM人群艾滋病预防干预措施及合理配置卫生资源提供参考依据。方法 采用两阶段抽样,对北京市男同活动场所、艾滋病自愿咨询检测（VCT）门诊所和男同网站的MSM进行问卷调查以获取相关数据,通过三来源获取再获取法（CMR）估计北京MSM人群基数。结果 北京市MSM人群基数估计为78 283人,标准差为7 682人（95%CI=63 226～93 340）。结论 首次采用三来源CMR法,对北京市MSM人群基数作出科学估计。Objective To estimate the population size of the men who have sex with men（MSM） in Beijing and to provide references for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome （AIDS） intervention and rational allocation of health re- sources among MSM in Beijing. Methods With two-stage sampling, a questionnaire survey was carried out among MSM who had participated in activities at Beijing gay venues,human immunodeficiency virus（HIV） voluntary counsel- ling and testing （VCT） clinics or gay websites to obtain relevant data. Three sources capture-mark-recapture method （CMR） was used to estimate the population size of MSM in Beijing. Results The population base of MSM in Beijing was estimated to be 78 283, with a standard deviation of 7 682 and a 95 % confidence interval of 63 226 - 93 340. Conclu- sion Scientific estimation of cardinal number of MSM in Beijing was made using three sources CMR first in the study.

关 键 词：男男性行为人群(MSM) 基数 获取再获取法(CMR) HIV 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]