节能减排背景下广东能源结构优化及对策研究  

Research on Optimization of Energy Structure and Countermeasures in Guangdong Province under the Background of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction

作　　者：徐枫[1] 唐镭[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学金融工程研究中心,广东广州51006

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2015年第15期233-239,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"我国绿色能源投融资政策供需失衡问题及对策研究"(14BJL109);中国清洁发展机制基金项目"广东省低碳投融资政策创新研究"(2012021);广东省自然科学基金项目"新能源产业投融资政策的需求分析与情境模拟:基于QFD理念"(S2013010013990)

摘　　要：通过可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型分析研究广东省在节能减排情景下的能源结构优化问题。首先对广东省构建CGE模型,形成一个10部门模型;然后通过广东省投入产出表等数据编制出广东省的社会核算矩阵(SAM);最后,通过情景模拟分析得出广东省的理想能源结构。结果表明,在保持经济稳定增长时,广东省在低碳减排的情景下可以有效改善能源结构、减少化石能源的消费并提高低碳能源的比例。由此提出广东省能源结构优化的发展思路。The article aims to study the optimization of energy structure under the background of energy conservation and e- mission reduction in Guangdong province through the Computable General Equilibrium （ CGE ） Model. It constructs the CGE model of Guangdong province and forms a ten - departments model. Then with the data obtained from the input - out- put table of Guangdong province, the author constructs the Social Accounting Matrix （ SAM ） of Guangdong province. Final- ly, through the scenario analysis of the CGE model, the author obtains the ideal energy structure of Guangdong Province. The result shows that, under the premise of maintaining steady growth, Guangdong can effectively improve the energy struc- ture, reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and improve the proportion of low carbon energy. Based on this, the author puts forward the development direction of the optimization of energy structure in Guangdong province.

关 键 词：节能减排 能源结构 可计算一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] F206