湿疹治疗方案药物经济学评价的蒙特卡洛模拟分析  

The Monte Carlo simulation of pharmacoeconomics evaluation about several kinds of treatments in eczema

作　　者：王栓[1] 陈丁丁[2] 居靖[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学附属安庆市医院药剂科,安庆246003 [2]中国药科大学,南京210009

出　　处：《中国抗生素杂志》2015年第8期635-640,共6页Chinese Journal of Antibiotics

基　　金：十二五国家科技支撑计划"安全合理用药评价和干预技术研究与应用"(No.2013BAI06B04)

摘　　要：目的比较丁酸氢化可的松乳膏、糠酸莫米松乳膏、莫匹罗星软膏联用丁酸氢化可的松乳膏、莫匹罗星软膏联用糠酸莫米松乳膏4种方案对湿疹治疗的成本效果。方法从已发表文献中提取数据,进行Meta分析获得4种方案对湿疹治疗的有效概率;药品成本根据国家发改委出示零售价确定,用基于文献的决策树模型进行成本效果分析。蒙特卡洛模拟法分析结果敏感性。结果在基础数据分析中,以上4种方案的成本分别是;26、36.9、42.8和53.7元,回乘分析显示:莫匹罗星软膏联用糠酸莫米松乳膏组是最优方案。蒙特卡洛模拟分析:抽样结果的误差较小;概率敏感性分析显示:糠酸莫米松乳膏联用莫匹罗星软膏的可接受概率大约60%。结论 4种治疗湿疹的方案中,糠酸莫米松乳膏联用莫匹罗星软膏是最优选择。Objective To compare the cost-effectiveness of hydrocortisone butyrate cream, mometsone furotecream, mupirocin ointment combination with hydrocortisone butyrate cream and mupirocin ointment combiningwith methasone furote cream in the treatment of eczema. Methods The effective probability of the treatments ineczema was obtained from Meta analysis which data was got from published literatures. The varieties of drug abovementioned were obtained in the included literatures. The drug cost was the maximum retail price which was gainedfrom the national development and reform commission. The cost-effectiveness analysis was implemented by decisiontree model. The variable sensitivity was analyzed by Monte Carlo analysis. Results In the fundamental data analysis,the costs of the above four kinds of treatment respectively are 26, 36.9, 42.8 and 53.7RMB. Roll back analysis showsthat mupirocin combined with mometasone is the best strategy. The Monte Carlo analysis shows that the samplingerror is low. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis displays that the acceptable probability of the group of mupirocinointment combination with mometasone furoate cream approximately is 60%. Conclusion From the four treatmentof eczema, the optimal choice is the group of mupirocin ointment combination with mometasone furoate.

关 键 词：湿疹 药物经济学 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：R979.9[医药卫生—药品]