全国法定传染病报告率评估调查抽样方法设计  

Sampling method for national notifiable communicable disease surveillance system assessment

作　　者：张业武[1] 郭青[1] 张春曦[1] 王晓风[1] 于萌[1] 郑环[1] 苏雪梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与信息服务中心,北京102206

出　　处：《疾病监测》2015年第7期546-550,共5页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(No.2013ZX10004218-06-006)~~

摘　　要：目的为获取全国医疗机构法定传染病报告率水平,研究制定相应的抽样方法和抽样方案。方法利用2005年以来传染病报告率相关调查资料和传染病网络直报系统的传染病报告信息,根据分层整群多阶段抽样的理论和方法,分别计算总体样本、各层样本量、各阶段样本点数,并对计算结果进行归并,完成抽样框架设计。结果最终确定本次调查的总样本量为1998例,按省级、地市级、县(区)级、乡镇级报告机构进行分层,每层内调查样本分别为270、540、864和324例;各层内分别采用3、4、5、6个阶段确定抽样调查样本点。调查范围覆盖9个省、27个地市、27个县(区)、54个乡镇,每个行政区划内随机调查1所对应级别的传染病报告单位。结论本次调查首次将分层整群多阶段抽样应用到传染病报告率评估工作中。在抽样设计过程中,通过限制样本误差,增加置信度,在保证从调查样本到总体推断的精度同时,也减少了调查过程中的人力、物力和时间投入,大大提高调查效率,为今后开展类似工作提供参考。Objective To understand the national reporting level of notifiable communicable diseases in hospitals included in national notifiable communicable disease surveillance system,the sampling method and protocol w ere designed. Methods Based on data from the previous studies on the reporting rates of communicable diseases since 2005 and the data from national notifiable communicable disease surveillance system,the sampling protocol w as designed according to the theory and methods of multistage stratified cluster sampling and the overall sample size,sample size of each stratum,sample points at each stage w ere calculated. Results The total sample size w as 1998. All the samples w ere in four strata： provincial hospitals（ n = 270）,prefecture hospitals（ n = 540）,county hospitals（ n = 864）,and tow nship hospitals（ n = 324）. According to the design of the study,the hospitals w ere randomly selected from 54 tow nships in 27 counties in 27 prefectures in 9 provinces. Conclusion It w as the first time for us to use multistage stratified cluster sampling method to conduct communicable disease reporting rate assessments. To avoid sampling error,a higher degree of confidence w as set to ensure the accuracy and reliability of sampling inference. Thus,the manpow er,resources and investigation time w ere reduced and the efficiency of investigation w as improved.

关 键 词：法定传染病报告 多阶段整群抽样方法 报告率 

分 类 号：R181.82[医药卫生—流行病学]