TPP背景下世界高端制造业贸易格局演化研究——基于复杂网络的社团分析  

Evolution of World's High–end Manufacturing Trade Pattern against Background of TPP: A Study Based on Community Analysis of Complex Networks

作　　者：许和连[1] 孙天阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济贸易学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2015年第8期3-13,共11页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10BJL040);国家自然科学基金项目(41371134)

摘　　要：本文对TPP背景下中国和美国在亚太地区高端制造业出口情况对比分析,并构建1992-2013年世界高端制造业贸易网络,利用Blondel算法对世界高端制造业贸易网络的社团划分及其演化进行分析。研究表明2009年美国加入TPP以来,美国高端制造业出口占亚太经济体高端制造业进口比重显著提高,中国所占比重有所下降。世界高端制造业贸易网络社团的演化经历了"发达国家主导"、"亚太地区崛起"和"后金融危机"三个阶段,2009年后由原欧非、亚太两个社团分裂为欧非、亚太、TPP三个社团,TPP社团的迅速崛起和美国的强势加入吸引了东亚经济体的纷纷加入,中国却被拒之门外。美国在亚太高端制造业角逐中已抢占先机,中国面临在亚太高端制造业生产网络中被边缘化挑战。This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the high- end manu- facturing exports of China and the United States in the Asian- Pacific region un- der the background of TPP, constructs a world trade network of the high- end manufacturing in 1992- 2013, and studies the division and evolution of the net- work through Blondel algorithm. The studies have shown that the proportion of the high - end manufacturing exports of the United States to the Asian - Pacific economies have increased significantly since the US joined the TPP in 2009 while that of China has declined. The evolution of the world＇ s trade communi- ty network of high- end manufacturing has experienced three stages, which are “Dominated by the Developed Countries” , “Rise of the Asia- Pacific Region” and “After Financial Crisis” . In 2009, the former Europe- Africa and Asia- Eu- rope communities split into three communities： Europe- Africa, Asia- Europe and TPP communities. The rapid rise of the TPP community and the joining of the United States attracted the East Asian economies to join in, but China was ex- eluded. With the TPP platform and “re- industrialization” , “export doubling” and other measures, in the compete of high- end manufacturing in Asia- Pacific, the United States has seized the initiative, which sets China facing the challenge of being marginalized in the high - end manufacturing network in the Asian - Pa- cific region.

关 键 词：TPP 高端制造业 复杂网络 社团分析 

分 类 号：F062.3[经济管理—政治经济学]