中国二氧化硫污染的“稳健性”影响因素——基于空间面板数据EBA模型的实证分析  

Robust factors affecting China's sulfur dioxide pollution-empirical analysis based on spatial panel data of EBA model

作　　者：王立平[1] 刘敏[1] 李然[2] 张海波[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学经济学院,合肥230601 [2]安徽建筑大学管理学院,合肥230601

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2015年第8期2362-2369,共8页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.71073045;71473068);教育部人文社科规划项目(No.12YJA790135);安徽省自然科学基金(No.11040606M18);安徽省高等学校优秀青年人才基金项目~~

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就.然而,随着经济的快速增长,环境污染问题也日益凸显.本文采用2000—2012年中国30个省际的面板数据,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论检验二氧化硫(SO2)污染与经济增长的关系及其空间溢出效应,进而引入极值边界模型(EBA模型)实证检验SO2污染的"稳健性"影响因素.结果表明:我国各省域SO2污染与经济增长存在EKC曲线假设的倒"U"型关系,并具有空间溢出效应;第二产业就业人口比重、出口占GDP的比重、能源效率、化石能源比重、工业污染治理完成投资与SO2排放量呈正向"稳健性"关系,产业结构升级与SO2排放量呈负向"稳健性"关系.最后根据实证结论提出相应的政策建议,为政府制定相应的SO2减排政策提供经验证据和决策参考.China has made remarkable achievements in economic development since the implementation of reform and opening up policy. Environmental pollution however becomes more serious along with the rapid growth of economy. Employing spatial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2012,this paper applies the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve to examine the relationship between sulfur dioxide pollution and economic growth and its spillover effects,and then empirically analyzes the factors which have‘robust＇effect on sulfur dioxide pollution based on the extreme boundary analysis model（ EBA）. It is shown that with spatial spillover effects,there exists an inverse ‘U ＇-curve between sulfur dioxide and economic growth that Environmental Kuznets Curve assumes. Proportion of secondary industry employment,proportion of exports in GDP,energy efficiency,ratio of fossil energy,and investments on industrial pollution control have robust and positive impacts on sulfur dioxide emissions,while upgrading of industrial structure has negative‘robust＇impacts on sulfur dioxide emissions. This study provides empirical evidence and decision-making reference for the government to formulate environmental protection and economic development policies.

关 键 词：二氧化硫污染 环境库兹涅茨曲线 溢出效应 极值边界分析 “稳健性”检验 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]