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机构地区:[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084 [2]中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院,北京100081
出 处:《中国公路学报》2015年第7期93-101,共9页China Journal of Highway and Transport
基 金:国家自然科学基金项目(70971075;71303269)
摘 要:为探索高速公路建设对区域发展的空间联动影响规律,在道路绩效空间溢出效应数理分析的基础上,以宁夏"同心—沿川子"高速公路项目为例,利用因子分析合成高速公路影响区县综合发展指数,选择典型道路绩效表征变量,构建道路投资绩效空间滞后模型,对"同心—沿川子"高速公路建设影响区域综合发展的空间溢出效应进行评价。结果表明:随着"同心—固原"、"固原—什字"和"什字—沿川子"3期高速公路阶段性施工通车,道路投资空间效应呈现短期正向溢出、中期负向溢出、长期均衡的动态变化规律。建议在高速公路投资决策时充分考虑区域经济活动特点,发挥交通项目建设对区域空间均衡发展的正向带动作用。To explore the regional spatial linkage effects of the expressway construction on regional development, based on the mathematical analysis on spatial spillover effect of expressway, taking the expressway from Tongxin to Yanchuanzi in Ningxia as an example, a spatial lag model on expressway investment performance was built to assess spatial spillover effects of expressway investment on regional development. To build the model, a comprehensive development index of counties/districts benefited from an expressway was synthesized through factor analysis. Then typical variables to measure performance of expressway investment were selected using Pearson correlation coefficient. The results show that along with completion of three phases of the expressway (Tongxin-Guyuan, Guyuan-Shizi, and Shizi-Yanchuanzi), the spatial effects of expressway investment on regional development appear positive spillover in short term, negative spillover in mid-term and equilibrium in the long run. It is suggested that the characteristics of regional economic development should be fully considered when an expressway project is planned so that its function to promote balanced development of the region can be maximized.
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