汾河上游径流演变特征及其驱动力  

Variation Characteristics of Runoff and Its Driving Forces in the Upper Reaches of Fenhe River

作　　者：周莹[1] 赵雪花[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,太原030024

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2015年第7期58-63,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：山西省科技攻关项目(20140313023-4);国家自然科学基金项目(40901018);青年团队启动项目(2013T039)

摘　　要：基于汾河上游兰村站1956－2000年径流数据，采用累积距平、M －K趋势检验、有序聚类、EM D分解和双累积曲线等方法，探讨了径流的年内分布和年际变化特征，定量分析了降水和人类活动对径流的影响率，进一步研究了径流对太阳活动和ENSO循环的响应。结果表明：①汾河上游径流年内分布极不均匀。径流年际变化呈显著减少趋势，经历了丰枯两个阶段，并在1970年发生突变。年径流具有准2～4年等周期。②1970年前径流主要受降水影响，1970年后人类活动对径流减少贡献最大，降水次之。③厄尔尼诺发生年径流减少，结束年增加；拉尼娜发生年径流增加，结束年减少。两事件主要影响夏季和秋季的径流。太阳活动和径流丰枯有很好的响应关系。Based on the runoff data measured by Lancun hydrological Station in the upper reaches of the Fenhe River from 1956 to 2000 ,accumulation anomaly ,the Mann-Kendall ,orderly clustering ,EMD ,double mass curve analysis methods are used to analyze the intra-annual distribution and the change characteristics of runoff ,estimate quantitatively the influence of precipitation and human activities on the runoff .This paper also studies sunspot activity ,ENSO cycle affecting the changes in the runoff .The results show that ：① The intra-annual distribution of runoff was extremely uneven .There was abrupt reductions in the observed annual runoff . Apparent periodicities （high-low） could be observed and the annual runoff varied abruptly in 1970 .There were obvious periodic vari‐ations with scales 2~4 a ,4 or 7 a for the annual runoff series .② Runoff was closely related to the annual rainfall before 1970 ,the human activities became the main factor that caused the runoff decrease after 1970 compared with annual rainfall .③When El Nino occurred ,the runoff decreased;in the end year of El Nino the runoff increased .When La Nina occurred ,the runoff increased;in the end year of La Nina the runoff decreased .Two events mainly affected the runoff of summer and autumn .And sunspot activity was significantly correlated to annual runoff amount .

关 键 词：径流演变 降水 人类活动 ENSO循环 太阳黑子 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]