山西省大风变化特征及风险分析  

Characteristics and Risk Analysis of Gale in Shanxi Province

作　　者：周雅清 郭彩萍 郭雪梅[2] 王弢 

机构地区：[1]山西省晋中市气象局,山西晋中030600 [2]山西省气象局,山西太原030002

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第5期544-547,共4页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：山西省科技攻关项目(20110311041);山西省自然科学基金(2009011045-1)

摘　　要：选取1961－2010年山西省65个气象站逐日大风资料，对山西省大风日数时间演变、空间分布进行分析，运用信息扩散理论得出发生不同大风日数的概率风险估计。结果表明：（1）近50 a 来，山西省年平均大风日数显著减少，趋势达到－3.1 d／10 a ；（2）山西省大风日数以纬向分布为主，北部大风日数较多，近50 a 平均年总日数基本上都在15天以上，中部一般在10～15天之间，南部大部分地区在10天以下。近50 a 北部减少明显，每10年减少一般在3天以上，而中南部大部分地区每10年减少在2天以下。（3）山西省北部大部和南部局部为大风风险高值区，中南部大部为风险低值区。（4）山西省大风日数的减少除受大尺度范围的大气环流的影响外，城市的迅速扩张和土地利用变化造成下垫面的改变对局地风速也产生明显的影响。Based on the daily data of 65 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 in Shanxi Province ,the spatial‐tempo‐ral distributions of gale days were analyzed ,and the risk probability of strong winds were calculated through informa‐tion diffusion theory .The results showed ： （1） The annual average gale days reduced significantly with the rate of- 3.1 d/10 a in recent 50 years ;（2） The gale days with zonal distribution in Shanxi Province were more intensive in northern area ,where the annual gale days were mostly more than 15 days in nearly 50 years ,those were 10 ~ 15 days in middle area ,while those were less than 10 days in southern area .There was a significant reduction in northern , more than 3 days reduced in every 10 years ,and more than 2 days reduced in every 10 years in most southern and mid‐dle areas .（3） Most areas in north and regional areas in south were high‐value risk areas ,while most areas in middle and south were low‐value risk areas .（4）The reduction of gale days in Shanxi Province were influenced by the general atmospheric circulation in large scale ,Besides ,rapid urbanization expansions and underlying surface changing by land utilization were also the obvious influenced on regional wind speed .

关 键 词：山西省 大风日数 风险 城市化影响 

分 类 号：P425.47[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]