工伤保险基金可持续发展研究——基于天津市工伤保险医疗待遇支出数据实证分析  

Study on Sustainable Development of Injury Insurance Fund—An Empirical Analysis Based on Data of the Injury Insurance Medical Expenses in Tianjin

作　　者：于新亮[1] 王歆[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《社会保障研究》2015年第3期28-34,共7页Social Security Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"我国社会发展与民生保障战略研究"(编号13JJD840004)的资助成果

摘　　要：随着工伤保险实行社会统筹,基金支出规模不断增长,运用科学的预算方法预测并合理管控工伤保险基金支出已成为实现工伤保险可持续发展的核心举措之一。结合天津市工伤保险基金财务状况,以医疗待遇支出月度数据为例,建立了去势季节时间序列模型,并验证时间序列计量模型预算方法与传统预算方法相比具有可行性和优越性。建议建立一套工伤保险预警体系。With the social pooling of Injury Insurance and growing of its fund spending, it has become one of the key initiatives to achieve sustainable development of Injury Insurance that forecasting and reasonably controlling Injury Insurance fund spending through scientific methods of budgeting. Combined with the financial situation in Tianjin Injury Insurance fund, taking the monthly data of its medical treatment expenses as an example, this paper established a seasonal ARIMA model to highlight its feasibility and superiority compared to the traditional methods of budgeting. Establishment of an Injury Insurance early warning system is also suggested.

关 键 词：工伤保险基金 医疗待遇支出 去势季节时间序列模型 预警系统 

分 类 号：F842.616[经济管理—保险]