2014年埃博拉病例数与年积温差值相关性分析  

Correlation Analysis Between Ebola Outbreak in 2014 and Difference of Accumulated Temperature

作　　者：吕游[1] 柯资能[1] 顾植山 王昌忠[3] 孙明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学科技史与科技考古系,安徽合肥230026 [2]江阴致和堂中医药研究所,江苏江阴214400 [3]山东理工大学教务处,山东淄博255049

出　　处：《广西民族大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第3期62-65,81,共5页Journal of Guangxi Minzu University ：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家科技重大专项子课题(No.2012ZX 10004301-609)

摘　　要：2014年埃博拉疫情在西非爆发,笔者发现疫区有一个共同特点就是近年来气温长期低于正常情况.近三年来几内亚95.7%的天数的平均气温低于往年平均情况,塞拉利昂次之.利用SPSS19.0将几内亚(科纳克里)、塞拉利昂(佛里敦机场)、尼日利亚(阿布贾)的积温差值与其对应时间点的埃博拉病例数作相关性分析和一元线性回归分析,积温差值与病例数之间具有极其显著的相关性(几内亚R=0.974,p=0.000、塞拉利昂R=0.965,p=0.000、尼日利亚R=0.789,p=0.002),并都存在一元线性关系.总之,三地区的埃博拉病例数都随着积温差值的变化而变化,与回归方程的结果趋势一致,由此可推测,当总积温差值恢复到一定阈值附近,埃博拉疫情趋于平息.另外,2015年气候未出现类似现象的地区即便有输入性散发病例,也不容易发生大规模扩散.Ebola outbreak broke out in West Africa in Year 2014. We find there is one common feature in epidemic area that temperature in recent years is lower than normal situation. In recent three years, 95.7% number of days in Guinea is lower than previous average cases, and Sierra Leone takes the second place. By conducting correlation analysis and one variant linear regression analysis of accumulated tempera- ture difference value of Guinea （Conakry）, Nigeria （Abuja）, Sierra Leone （Freetown Airport） and number of Ebola cases at their corresponding time points by using SPSS 19.0, accumulated temperature difference value and number of cases are extremely obviously related （GuineaR =0.974, p =0.000, Nigeria R =0.789, p = 0.002 and Sierra Leone R =0. 965, p =0. 000） and they have one variant linear relationship. In conclu- sion, the number of Ebola cases at three areas changes along with the change of accumulated temperature difference value and is consistent with the result and tendency of regression equation. We can predict that when overall accumulated temperature difference value restores to near certain threshold value, Ebola break- out tends to quiet down. Furthermore, even if there is imported sporadic case at areas where climate does not have similar phenomena this year, massive diffusion will not easily happen.

关 键 词：埃博拉 气候失常 积温 平均气温 一元线性回归分析 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]