东盟对外贸易发展的影响因素及潜力——基于引力模型的实证研究  

Analysis of the Influencing Factor and Potential about ASEAN International Trade Based on Gravity Model

作　　者：王术[1] 喻美辞[1] 王斌会[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642 [2]暨南大学管理学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《广西财经学院学报》2015年第4期74-79,共6页Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"科技信息统计与绩效评估"(11614801)资助

摘　　要：文章基于东盟视角,运用2000—2011年东盟主要贸易伙伴的面板数据进行分析,构建贸易引力模型对双边进出口贸易流量的影响因素进行分析,估算出东盟主要贸易伙伴的贸易潜力。结果表明,贸易双方的国内生产总值对双边进出口贸易流量有正向影响,贸易双方的人口和之间的距离对双边进出口贸易流量有负向影响。通过估算贸易潜力得出东盟最具贸易潜力的三个国家分别是俄罗斯、澳大利亚和日本,中国与东盟处于潜力开拓型关系,与俄澳日三国相比尚有差距,建议未来的研究内容可以集中分析某一特定产业或某一特定产品的贸易效应,从而改善我国出口结构,提升我国的贸易竞争力。This paper uses the 2000-2011 panel data to analyze the influencing factor and potential of ASEAN international trades flows based on gravity model. The results show that the economic scale of both sides have great positive effects on the bilateral trade volume. Population sizes of both sides and the dis-tance between the two countries have negative effects on the bilateral trade volume. By measuring the trade potential of ASEAN business partners,we discover that the most potential partners of ASEAN are Russia, Australia and Japan,China is forging ahead with ASEAN as business partners.There is a huge gap between China and the most potential partners. In order to improve China’s export structure and raise its trading competitiveness concretely,we advice future research should focus on analyzing the trading effect of one spe-cial industry or product.

关 键 词：东盟 贸易竞争力 影响因素 引力模型 

分 类 号：F753[经济管理—国际贸易]