国际生产分割视角下的中国双边贸易平衡——以东亚经济体为例  

China's Bilateral Trade Balances in the Perspective of International Fragmentation of Production——In the Case of EA Economy

作　　者：汤磊[1] 沙文兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《广西财经学院学报》2015年第4期80-86,共7页Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"人民币国际化对中国经济内外均衡动态影响研究"(11CJL035);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(CXJJ2014023)

摘　　要：为了解释中国近年来对东亚经济体贸易逆差持续地增加的现象,文章在国际生产分割背景下,分别基于总体、国家(地区)和行业视角,对1992—2012年中国与东亚8个经济体间的零部件贸易面板数据进行实证分析。结果表明:中国作为东亚国际生产网络中的枢纽,从日韩等东亚经济体进口零部件会显著扩大中国对东亚经济体的贸易逆差,其中以ICT行业最为典型;生产分割效应弱化了汇率对双边贸易平衡的影响。只要中国在国际生产分割中所扮演的角色不变,中国对外贸易总体顺差和区域性逆差的局面将会持续存在。In order to explain the fact that China’s trade deficit with East Asian economy grows continu-ously,this paper empirically analyzes the panel data of bilateral trade in parts and components between Chi-na and 8 EA economics from 1992 to 2012 under the background of international fragmentation of produc-tion,based on the perspectives of overall,countries（regions）and industry respectively. The results show that：as a trade hub in the international production networks of East Asia,China’s import of parts and compo-nents from EA economics such as Japan and Korea will expand the bilateral trade deficit significantly,espe-cially in the ICT industry; international fragmentation of production will weaken the influence of exchange rates on bilateral trade balances. Therefore,as long as China keeps the its role in the international fragmen-tation of production,the situation of China’s overall surplus and regional deficit will continue.

关 键 词：国际生产分割 双边贸易 零部件贸易 区域性逆差 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]