最终需求冲击的产出影响——IO和SAM乘数的分解与比较  

Final Demand Impact on Output——Decomposition and Comparison of IO and SAM Multipliers

作　　者：周文[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院金融学院,武汉430205

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2015年第4期3-13,共11页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“突发冲击背景下维持中国经济稳定的关键产业辨识及优化管理研究”(12YJC790292);湖北省科技支撑计划软科学项目“稳增长、促就业目标约束下湖北省产业结构低碳转型实施策略研究”(2014BDF071)

摘　　要：为细致地比较投入产出(IO)乘数和社会核算矩阵(SAM)乘数之间的差异,可以把最终需求冲击的产出影响分为四个层次:直接影响、间接影响、引致影响和总影响,并按照这一标准对IO和SAM乘数进行分解。基于2007年中国投入产出表的IO和SAM乘数分析结果表明,由于内生部门设置以及部分数据存在差异,最终需求冲击导致的IO总影响乘数大于SAM总影响乘数,其中,IO引致影响乘数大于SAM引致影响乘数,而IO间接影响乘数小于SAM间接影响乘数。IO总影响乘数与SAM总影响乘数排序不同主要是因为间接影响乘数的排序存在差异,引致影响乘数排序几乎完全一致。SAM乘数在测算最终需求冲击导致的各类产出影响方面更有优势。In order to compare the differences between IO and SAM multipliers in detail,the final demand impact on output can be divided into four levels：direct impact, indirect impact, in- duced impact and total impact. IO and SAM multipliers can be decomposed based on the standard. The analysis of IO and SAM multipliers in the IO table of 2007 shows that due to the differences between endogenous department and part of the data, the total impact multiplier of IO caused by final demand impact is greater than that of SAM, among which, IO induced impact multiplier is greater than that of SAM,but the indirect impact of IO is less than that of SAM. The order of IO and SAM total impact multiplier are mainly caused by the order differences of indirect impact mul- tiplier, and they are almost the same with the order of induced impact multiplier. SAM multiplier has more advantages in measuring different kinds of output caused by final demand impact.

关 键 词：最终需求冲击 产出影响 IO乘数 SAM乘数 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]