基于主成分分析的晋西北水生态承载力评价  

Evaluation of Water Ecological Carrying Capacity in Northwestern Shanxi on Principal Component Analysis

作　　者：胡晋飞[1] 杨永刚[1,2] 秦作栋[1] 李晋昌[1] 孟志龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西大学黄土高原研究所,山西太原030006 [2]中国科学院生态环境研究中心,北京100085

出　　处：《山西农业科学》2015年第8期1021-1026,共6页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41201043);国家国际科技合作专项(2012DFA20770);中国博士后基金面上项目一等资助(2014M055095);山西省科技重大专项(20121101011);山西省青年科技研究基金项目(2012021026-3)

摘　　要：水生态承载力的研究是解决生态环境与社会经济可持续发展问题的有效手段。为了研究晋西北水生态承载力状况,选取晋西北右玉县17个指标建立评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法确定3个主成分,对右玉县水生态承载力进行评价研究,并计算出2003—2011年水生态承载力的综合得分。结果表明,影响右玉县水生态承载力的因子主要包括人口、社会经济发展状况及水资源的开发利用水平。右玉县2003—2007年水生态承载力存在明显的波动;2008—2011年水生态承载力总体呈现增长态势,虽然人口和经济规模不断扩大,但总用水量相比于前5 a明显减小,说明随着社会经济和科学技术的发展,水资源开发利用率大大增加。Research on water ecological carrying capacity is an effective measure in settling the sustainable development issues of ecological environment and social economy. In order to study the water ecological carrying capacity in northwestern Shanxi, the paper es- tablished evaluation index system with seventeen indicators, and applied principal component analysis to select three principal compo- nents, which we could use to evaluate water ecological carrying capacity in Youyu county. And then we could calculate the scores of Youyu county＇s water ecological carrying capacity from 2003 to 2011. The results showed that there were three main factors affecting wa- ter ecological carrying capacity of Youyu county, including demographic situation, socio-economic status and the level of exploitation and utilization of water resources. The water ecological carrying capacity in Youyu county had obvious fluctuation from 2003 to 2007; as a whole, the water ecological carrying capacity in Youyu county was on the increasing tendency from 2008 to 2011, the population and e- conomy of scale had been expending, but the total water consumption was significantly lower than the previous five years, which showed that water resources utilization rate increased significantly with the development of technology and social economy.

关 键 词：水生态承载力 主成分分析 评价指标 水资源 右玉县 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]