湖北省“单独两孩”政策下的生育行为分析  

Analysis of Fertility Behaviour under the "Single Permitted Two-Child" Policy:Based on the Hubei Province

作　　者：薛君[1] 石人炳[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学社会学系人口研究所

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2015年第4期14-22,126,共9页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：华中科技大学985项目"中国生育政策调整与人口结构变化研究"(编号:20141SH02)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章以湖北省卫生和计划生育委员会提供的人口和计划生育数据为基础,分析"单独两孩"政策调整1年来的二孩生育行为。结果显示,湖北省实施"单独两孩"政策后申请总量为23 457例,新增二孩生育总量为6 052人。从年龄分布看,申请的峰值年龄为31岁,生育的峰值年龄为32岁。分月份二孩申请量显示,符合条件的单独家庭对"单独两孩"政策有一定的响应,而生育量的平稳增长反映了生育释放存在一定的滞后。与双独妇女生育数据对比发现,生育堆积和高龄抢生的影响很小;在现行计划生育政策控制力式微的背景下,育龄妇女城乡户籍结构与其生育意愿的错配抑制了二孩生育,造成"单独两孩"生育政策"遇冷"。This paper analyses the fertility behaviour of the second child in over one year of implementing 'Single Permitted Two-child ' policy based on the family planning data from Hubei Province.It indicates that the number of two-child applications was 23 457,and the number of two-child births was 6 052 under this policy in Hubei Province.In the view of age distribution,the peak age of two-child application is 31-year-old,and the peak age of two-child birth is 32-year-old.The number of two-child applications in different months suggest that the 'single family' had some positive responses for the 'single permitted two-child' policy while the stable growth of the two-child births rate reflected the lag of the growth of the fertility.Compared with the couples who are both only child,the impact of fertility accumulation and fertility in advanced age is very small.Under the background of weak control of current population policy,the mismatching of the total number of different women with a childbearing age among the household registration and their fertility behavior inhibits the second child birth.

关 键 词：“单独两孩”政策 生育行为 孩次递进比 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]