耕地压力与中国城镇化——基于地理差异的实证研究  

Farmland Pressure and China' s Urbanisation: An Empirical Study with the View of Geographical Differences

作　　者：罗翔[1] 罗静[1] 张路[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室 [2]华中科技大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2015年第4期47-59,127,共13页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"基于农业生产风险的中国城镇化成因与路径特征研究"(编号:13CJY035)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：文章基于2000～2012年省级面板数据，借用修正的耕地压力指数，对中国区域间的耕地压力及变动趋势进行测度，并在此基础上，运用工具变量回归对耕地压力与城镇化进行实证研究。结果发现，耕地压力指数每上升1个百分点，中国的城镇化率上升0．26个百分点，不仅如此，滞后3期的耕地压力指数每上升1个百分点，中国城镇化率累积上升0．16个百分点，对耕地压力指数和城镇化率剔除周期性成分后，影响机制依然存在。这表明基于地理因素和自然禀赋的耕地压力是中国城镇化的长期影响因素，而借用土地供给量平衡区域发展的城镇化发展模式扭曲了资源配置的方向，导致城镇化中区域发展失衡与土地的非集约使用。因此文章建议，城镇化与农业可持续发展相结合，实行差别化、渐进的城市发展模式。Using a modified farmland pressure index, this paper estimates China' s farmland pressure and its changing trend, and employs 2SLS to estimate farmland pressure index on China' s urbanisation based on the provincial panel data during 2000 ?2012. The results find that urbanisation increases by an average of 0.26% as farmland pressure index increases 1%. Moreover,urbanisation increases about 0.16% when lagged effects of farmland pressure index over 3 years rates rise 1%. In addition, to extract the cyclical components, farmland pressure still has a long effect mechanism on urbanisation. This indicates that the farmland pressure index based on geographical factors and natural endowment is a long-term influential factor of China ' s urbanisation. The current land usage policy distorts resource allocation due to extensive use of land and regional imbalanced development. The paper suggests that urbanisation should be combined with the sustainable development of agriculture, and the urban development should be implemented in a gradual and differentiated pattern.

关 键 词：城镇化 耕地压力指数 工具变量 区域差异 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]