矿业城市能源消费碳排放变化及其影响因素研究  

Research into the carbon emissions from energy consumptions change and its influencing factors

作　　者：罗广芳 张建军[1,2] 李胜男[1] 饶永恒 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)土地科学技术学院,北京100083 [2]国土资源部土地整治重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《中国矿业》2015年第8期53-58,共6页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：北京市支持中央高校共建项目--青年英才计划项目资助(编号:YETP0639)

摘　　要：对能源消费碳排放驱动因子的定量分析是目前碳排放研究的热点之一,本文利用IPCC碳排放计算方法对武安市2002-2013年能源消费碳排放量进行了动态测算,并基于在环境经济研究中被广泛应用的STIRPAT模型计量拟合了能源消费碳排放与人口、人均GDP、能源强度、碳排放量强度、城镇化率的多元线性模型。结果表明能源消费碳排放量在研究阶段内呈逐年增长的趋势,而人口、人均GDP、城市化率、碳排放强度、与能源消费碳排放的弹性系数为0.295%、（-0.420＋0.929InG）%（G为人均GDP）、0.255%、0.188%。能源强度每减少1%,能源消费碳排放将会减少0.056%。同时经济增长与能源消费碳排放之间并没有出现环境库兹涅茨（EKC）曲线特征。据此研究认为缓解环境矛盾可以从提高能源利用效率、调整能源消费结构、加大科技投入等入手。Analyzed quantitatively to the influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumptions is the focus of the carbon emission researches. This paper built a STIPRAT-based multivariate linear model fitted by a ridge regression to examine the relationship between carbon emissions from energy consumption and a list of indices, including population, per capita GDP, energy intensity, carbon emission intensity,and level of urbanization. And count carbon emissions from energy consumptions change from 2002 to 2013 with the IPCC calculation method. It found that carbon emissions from energy consumption are increasing year by year in the study stage. And for 1% increase in population, per-capita GDP, urbanization and carbon emission intensity,there was 0. 295%, （-0. 420＋0. 929lnG） % ,0. 255 % ,and 0. 188% increase in carbon emissions in the city, respectively. On the contrary, every 1% reduction in energy intensity, energy consumption carbon emissions will be reduced by 0. 056%. The environmental Kuznets curve （EKC） characteristics don＇t exist between economic growth and energy consumption and carbon emissions. Accordingly, several suggestions are proposed in the study to mitigate the contradiction between environments, including improve the energy efficiency,adjust the energy consumption structure and increase investment in science and technology.

关 键 词：能源消费 碳排放 STIRPAT模型 影响因素 矿业城市 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]