汇率波动与货币政策选择——基于新开放经济DSGE模型的分析  

Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Monetary Policy Options: An Analysis Based on New Open Economy DSGE Model

作　　者：李霜[1] 简志宏[2] 邓伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430023 [2]华中科技大学经济学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中南财经政法大学会计学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2015年第4期61-71,共11页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71171090);教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(14YJC790023);湖北省教育厅人文社会科学项目(14G239)

摘　　要：本文将固定汇率、有管理的浮动汇率和完全的自由浮动汇率三种不同的汇率制度嵌套于货币政策中,基于福利损失研究了开放经济条件下汇率的波动特征、最优货币政策及汇率制度的选择问题。结果显示:消费习惯和本国产品价格调整黏性是驱动我国汇率波动的主要因素,而经济开放程度的提高有助于降低汇率波动。福利分析发现汇率干预并不能起到减少经济波动的作用,反而会降低福利。由于完全灵活浮动的汇率制度优于固定汇率和有管理的浮动汇率,当汇率偏离均衡水平时,货币政策并不需要对汇率波动响应。稳定国内的通货膨胀能够明显改善福利,因此,货币政策需要对通货膨胀波动进行响应。This paper analyzes the exchange rate fluctuation, optimal monetary policy and exchange rate regime options based on welfare criterion, in an open economy dynamic general equilibrium model framework. The fixed exchange rate, managed floating exchange rate and completely free floating exchange rate are nested in the monetary policy. The results reveal that consumption habits and the sticky price adjustment of domestic goods is the main factor driving exchange rate fluctuations, and a higher level of economic openness helps to reduce exchange rate volatility. Welfare analysis indicates that exchange rate intervention can not play a role in reducing economic fluctuation, but would reduce the welfare. As the fully flexible floating exchange rate regime works better than the fixed and managed floating exchange rate, when the exchange rate deviates from the equilibrium level, monetary policy needs not to react to the change in the exchange rate. Nevertheless, domestic inflation stability can significantly improve welfare, and therefore the monetary policy needs to respond to inflation.

关 键 词：福利 汇率波动 货币政策 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F822.0