基于灰面积关联决策的水资源可持续利用潜力评价  

Water Resources Sustainable Utilization Potential Evaluation Based on the Grey Area of Decision Making

作　　者：陈继光[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东英才学院,济南250104

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2015年第7期69-71,75,共4页Water Saving Irrigation

摘　　要：为完善水资源安全的评价及管理的决策支持,建立基于灰面积关联决策的水资源可持续利用潜力评价模型。以灰色关联决策理论为基础,分析经典灰色关联决策方法的优缺点,采用被选方案与理想方案间两曲线相邻点间多边形面积作为关联系数,度量曲线的几何形状的相似性,构建了灰色关联度公式。采用山东半岛蓝色经济区为研究区,对区域内6个城市研究单元的水资源可持续利用潜力进行评价,分析城市研究单元评价结果差异。通过算例验证了所提出的灰面积关联决策模型的合理性和算法的有效性,为水资源安全的评价及管理提供新的决策模型。To improve the water resources security evaluation and management decision support, a model for water resource sustainable utilization potential evaluation is established on the basis of grey area correlation decisions. Based on the grey incidence decision theory, the advantages and disadvantages of classical grey incidence decision-making method are analyzed, the polygon area between the adjacent points of the two curves of the selected scheme and ideal scheme is selected as the correlation coefficient, the geometry similarity of the curves is measured, and the grey correlation formula is constructed. Taking the Shandong peninsula blue economic zone as the research area, the water resource sustainable utilization potential of the six cities within the region is evaluated; the urban unit difference of evaluation results is analyzed. The effectiveness and the validity of the proposed grey area correlation decision model is verified through an example, which will provides a new decision model for the evaluation and management of water resources security.

关 键 词：水资源 灰色关联度 面积关联系数 决策模型 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]