数理统计方法在海浪灾害特征分析中的应用  

Application of mathematical statistics method in the wave disasters analysis

作　　者：任姝彤 张滨[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学,山东青岛266100 [2]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2015年第4期90-94,共5页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC19B08)

摘　　要：利用数理统计方法对46 a来中国沿海灾害性海浪过程进行分析,得出台风浪灾害、冷空气气旋浪灾害的年际分布规律,并采用回归分析法预测灾害性海浪过程多年变化趋势。结果显示:中国沿海台风浪灾害偏轻年份少于冷空气气旋浪灾害,但台风浪灾害程度更轻,使用ARIMA模型可以预测未来多年灾害性海浪年过程变化趋势。Wave disasters in the China seas happen with a high frequency and cause infinite damage. The disastrous waves in the past 46 years in the China seas are analyzed in this paper by the mathematical statistic method. The results show that the typhoon wave disasters, cold air and cyclone wave disasters have an inter-annual variability. The single factor regression analysis method is used to predict variation trend of disastrous waves.The results show that it is less frequent when wave hazards induced by typhoon is abnormally weaker than that of hazard induced by cold-air cyclone. However, the typhoon wave causes less damage comparing to that of cold-air cyclone.

关 键 词：数理统计 单因子回归分析法 灾害性海浪过程 

分 类 号：P731.22[天文地球—海洋科学]