复杂海况下飞行器掠海飞行击水概率的模拟研究  

A simulation study of ditching probability for sea-skimming flight on complicated sea surface statue

作　　者：关皓 梅华 闻斌 王东良 

机构地区：[1]北京市5111信箱,北京100094

出　　处：《海洋预报》2015年第4期95-103,共9页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41205044)

摘　　要：总结分析海浪影响下飞行器掠海飞行击水概率的相关算法;基于区域海气耦合模式对南海两类典型高海况的模拟结果,采用解析模型,定量分析了真实海况下某种巡航导弹击水概率的分布特征。结果表明:掠海飞行导弹的击水概率受海面波浪影响显著,在高海况下,其击水概率大幅度增加,其分布与有效波高分布较一致,对于本文研究的巡航导弹,在4 m以上的巨浪区,进行10 m高度飞行的击水概率超过60%,为了规避导弹击水风险,飞行最低高度应在13 m以上。基于数值模式计算的海洋水文要素的真实状态,结合特定导弹飞行参数,可以实现对击水概率的分析预报,为提高导弹生存能力、优化导弹航迹提供科学依据。The calculation of ditching probability for sea-skimming flight under the effect of ocean wave is discussed in this paper. Using a regional atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model in the South China Sea （SCS）, a cold air and typhoon processes are simulated. Based on the results, using an analytical model, the ditching probability for sea-skimming flight in the SCS is calculated and analyzed. The experiment results show that the influence of ocean waves on ditching probability is remarkable. In the state of high significant wave height, the ditching probability of aerobat is greatly improved and the distribution of ditching probability is consistent with significant wave height. For the specific aerobat in this paper, in the area with huge waves above 4.0m, the ditching probability of aerobat exceeds 60%. To avoid the risk of ditching, the minimum flight height is 13m. The coupled model improves the simulation accuracy of ocean elements. With the parameter of aerobat, it can be used for ditching probability analyses and forecasting which will provide a scientific basis for flight route planning.

关 键 词：击水概率 有效波高 区域海气耦合模式 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P731.22[天文地球—海洋科学]