基于系统动力学的电动汽车产业化政策研究  

Study on Industrialization Policy of the Electric Car Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：缪小明[1] 刘啦 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,西安710129

出　　处：《软科学》2015年第8期33-38,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BGL040)

摘　　要：从产业链形成的角度出发,运用系统动力学构造电动汽车产业化过程的因果回路图、流图,通过收集数据进行模型检验和仿真。调整政府对电动汽车产业采取的财政及税收手段,观察整个产业链的变化情况。结果表明:近期内政府产业化投入和采购对产业链发展更为重要;长期看来,优惠税率和购置补贴率能发挥更长久的作用;产业化投入中,R&D投入和基础设施投入比例的变动对产业链发展速度有较大的影响。From the perspective of the form of industrial chain, this paper will be used system dynamics to draw the causal loop diagram and flow diagram of the process of the electric car industrialization, to test and simulate model through collec- ting the data. By adjusting the fiscal and taxation of the electric car industry, the change results of the whole industry chain will be observed. The results show that in the near future industrialization of government investment and government procure- ment are more important for the development of the industrial chain; in the long term, preferential tax and purchase subsidy rate can play a important role; In the industrial investment, the proportion changes of the R＆D investment and infrastructure investment, have a large effect on the speed of industrial chain development.

关 键 词：系统动力学 电动汽车 产业化 仿真分析 

分 类 号：F407[经济管理—产业经济] F426.6