中国发生通货紧缩了吗?——基于动态总供给模型的研究  

China Deflation Happened?—─Based on the research of dynamic total supply model

作　　者：王婷婷 李振国[2] 陆岷峰[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中泰信托有限责任公司研究发展中心,上海200020 [2]南京财经大学金融学院,江苏南京210046 [3]江苏银行总行,江苏南京210005

出　　处：《兰州商学院学报》2015年第4期62-70,共9页Journal of Lanzhou Commercial College

摘　　要：2010—2014年期间,我国CPI同比和PPI同比连续下降,进入2015年CPI甚至跌破了1%的大关,我国当前的通货性质是否已经紧缩,通货紧缩到底离我们有多远等问题旋即成为了学术界和政府机构关心的话题。该文以我国宏观经济市场的月度数据为基础,对与通货性质息息相关的物价水平、货币供给和失业率等方面予以分析,界定我国当前通货性质为中性偏紧缩,但存在向通货紧缩发展的趋势和通货紧缩压力。并且,从经济总供给角度出发该文构建了动态总供给模型,利用我国近15年的宏观经济数据进行实证检验,得出当前2%左右的通货膨胀率低于我国经济在自然产出水平下的通货膨胀率3.46%,但需警惕紧缩带来的经济增长压力和社会风险。During the period of 2010--2014, Chinese CPI and PPI keep on declining. CPI even below the 1% when the beginning of 2015. ＂Is the nature of China＇ s current inflation is tightening＂ and ＂How far the deflation away from us＂ have became the topic of discussion, which the academic circles and the government agencies concerned with. Based on the monthly data of the macro economy of our country market, after we analysis the price level, money supply, unemployment, economic aggregate supply and so on, which is related with the current currency, we can define the current currency is neutral and crunch to the development trend of deflation and deflationary pressures. From the perspective of economic aggregate supply to build dynamic supply model and to empirical test the macroeconomic data of China in the past 15 years, it can be concluded that about 2% of the current inflation rate is lower than 3.46% inflation rate of China＇ s economy in the natural level of output, which need to guard against austerity risks of economic growth and social pressure.

关 键 词：通货紧缩 物价指数 货币供给 动态总供给模型 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]