京津风沙源区退耕还林农户复耕决策影响因素分析——基于补贴结束假设下的实证检验  

Influencing Factor Analysis on Farmers' Decision on Reclamation of Forest Land in Beijing and Tianjin Sandstorm Source Area:Empirical Testing for Assumption after Government Subsidy Coming to End

作　　者：郭轲[1] 王立群[1] 张璇[1] 高德健[2,3] 王枫[4] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871 [3]北大方正集团有限公司,北京100871 [4]中国林学会,北京100091

出　　处：《世界林业研究》2015年第4期90-96,共7页World Forestry Research

基　　金：林业公益性行业科研专项(201304308);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(11YJA630127)

摘　　要：以补贴到期后不再补贴为前提假设,运用Probit和Logit模型实证分析影响农户做出复耕决策的影响因素。结果表明:如果到期后停止补助受访农户中有复耕意愿的农户占53.46%,巩固退耕成果的难度依然较大;56.93%的农户对当前的退耕补贴政策持不满意或者非常不满意的态度,后续产业参与度不高。是否村干部、耕地总面积、退耕地面积、退耕地面积占耕地总面积的比例、对补贴的满意度、是否参与后续产业对农户复耕决策具有显著影响。访谈结果也表明,农户的复耕决策是在综合考虑收入预期和获得收益能力的基础上所做出的经营性决策;如果到期后停止退耕补贴而退耕土地又不能够直接为农民带来稳定的收益,或者退耕农户没有稳定的其他替代性收入,退耕农户将倾向于在补贴期后复耕。The influencing factors for farmers to decide to reclaim the forest land that was converted from agriculture land were empirically analyzed using Probit and Logit models against the assumption that the government subsidy for green for grain program will not be granted after subsidy period comes to end. The results showed that if there is no longer granting of subsidy, 53.46% of farmer households interviewed expressed their willingness to reconvert forest land to cropland, indicating great difficulty in consolidating the achievements made in green for grain program; 56. 93% of farmers felt unsatisfactory or very unsatisfactory towards the current subsidy policy implemented in green for grain program period, indicating a low degree of follow-up industry participation. The factors, area converted from cropland, the proportion including village cadres or not, total area of arable land, forest of forest land to the total arable land, satisfaction degree toward subsidy, participation of follow-up industries, have significant influences on farmers＇ decision to reclaim the forest land converted from cropland. The interview results also indicated that farmers＇ decision on reclaiming forest land converted is the business decision which is made on the comprehensive consideration of revenue prospect and the ability to gain profits. If the green for grain program come to end without continual granting of subsidy, and the forest land cannot bring direct and stable revenues for farmer, or farmers converting their land to forest land have no other stable alternative revenues, there is a high possibility that farmers will reclaim the forest land converted from their cropland.

关 键 词：复耕决策 退耕还林工程 京津风沙源区 影响因素 PROBIT模型 LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：F326.25[经济管理—产业经济]