濉溪县气象因子与夏玉米产量关系分析  

Analysis of Relationships between Meteorological Factors and Summer Corn Output in Suixi County

作　　者：苏玉杰[1] 周景春[2] 张存岭[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省淮北市气象局,安徽淮北235000 [2]安徽省濉溪县气象局,安徽濉溪235100

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2015年第8期49-51,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：淮北夏玉米安全生产气象保障及增产技术研究项目(2014R-7)

摘　　要：采用线性拟合回归分析和相关分析等统计分析方法,对濉溪县1985—2014年共30年的夏玉米单产量与同期气象因子的关系进行综合分析。结果表明,濉溪县1985年以来,夏玉米产量趋于直线增长。气象波动指数为0.122 2,占产量变异系数的43.07%。气象因素是影响产量波动的主要因子之一。播种-幼苗期和雌穗分化-灌浆初期是气象因子影响的关键时段。气象产量与6月中旬雨日正相关,与6月下旬降水量负弱相关;与7月下旬、8月上旬平均气温负相关;与8月下旬温差正相关,降水量、雨日负相关,日照时数弱相关。高产栽培要预防和规避花期高温,抗旱除涝。On basis of linear regres-sion and correlation analysis, the rela-tionship between the yield per unit ofsummer corn and meteorological factorwas comprehensive analyzed accordingto 30 years data from 1985 to 2014, Theresults showed that summer corn outputtended to increase linearly since 1985 inSuixi County. The meteorological waveindex of summer corn was 0.122 2,which hold the 43.07% in the coefficientof variation （0.122 2） on actual output,and weather factor was the principal im-pact factor of summer corn output. Thesowing to seedling stage and femalespike differentiation to early stage ofgrain filling were the key periods affect-ing summer corn output. The rain day inthe middle ten days of June and thetemperature difference in the last tendays of August were positively correlatedwith the meteorological yield. The mete-orological yield was negatively correlatedwith the average temperature in the lastten days of July and the first ten days ofAugust and the precipitation and rainday in the middle ten days of August.The meteorological yield was weaklynegatively eorrelated with the precipita-tion in the last ten days of June andweakly positively correlated with thesunshine duration in the last ten days ofAugust. For high-yield cultivation it wasnecessary to prevent and avoid high tem-perature at the flowering stage and com-bat drought and waterlogging.

关 键 词：气象因子 夏玉米 产量 相关分析 濉溪县 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]