中国航运景气监测预警系统  

China's Shipping Prosperity Monitoring and Early Warning System

作　　者：周德全[1] 真虹[1] 乐美龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学科学研究院上海国际航运研究中心,上海200135

出　　处：《系统工程》2015年第7期126-133,共8页Systems Engineering

基　　金：上海高校知识服务平台建设项目(ZF1209)

摘　　要：在简要分析中国航运业特性的基础上,综合运用了Delphi法、时差相关分析法与KL信息量法从近百项指标中选取了18项指标,建立了中国航运景气监测预警指标体系,并测算出不同指标之间的时差顺序。同时,采用t检验、综合评价法及合成指数等方法分别建立了中国航运景气监测示警系统与中国航运景气预测示警系统,并对模型进行了验证与分析。结果表明,中国航运景气监测预警系统具有良好的监测示警及预测示警功能,中国航运业存在偏冷风险,短期内不会出现大规模复苏。On the basis of the brief analysis of China’s shipping industry characteristics,using the Delphi,time difference correlation analysis and KL information method,this paper selects 18 indexes from hundreds of indicators,sets up the China shipping monitoring and early warning index system,and measures the time sequence between different indicators.Using t test,comprehensive evaluation method and the composite index method,respectively,this paper also sets up the China shipping monitor warning system and the China shipping forecast warning system.Then the model is verified and the analysis result shows that the Chinese shipping prosperity monitoring and early warning system has a good monitoring warning and forecasting warning function,that Chinese shipping industry has the risk of partial coldness,and that the mass recovery will not be in short term.

关 键 词：航运业 景气指数 监测预警 

分 类 号：U692[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]