基于熵权可拓的我国能源安全评价模型  

Evaluating Energy Security in China Based on Entropy Weight Extension Model

作　　者：陈兆荣[1] 雷勋平[2] 

机构地区：[1]铜陵学院,安徽铜陵24400 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《系统工程》2015年第7期153-158,共6页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社科基金资助项目(13CGL125);教育部人文社科青年基金资助项目(12YJC630082)

摘　　要：能源安全状况受多种因素影响,为提高能源安全评价的科学性和合理性。在DPSIR框架内,以能源安全驱动力、能源安全压力、能源安全状态、能源安全影响和能源安全政策响应等因素构建能源安全评价指标体系;在此基础上,确定能源安全的经典域、节域和待判物元,建立能源安全熵权可拓物元评价模型;以熵值法确定指标权重,结合A省数据,验证该模型的有效性和可行性。研究结果表明:基于熵权可拓的能源安全评价模型是熵权理论和物元可拓理论的有机结合,为定量评价能源安全状况提供新的思路,能够对能源安全状况进行有效监测和分析。For the sake of improving the scientificity and rationality of the model for evaluating situation of energy security,a measurement indicator system for energy security in the framework of DPSIR is designed,which includes security driving force,security pressure,security state,security impact and security responses.Then,a evaluation model of energy security is constructed on the basis of entropy weight and matter-element extension.Next,the classical and limited fields and matter element for judge are then determined.Finally the feasibility and effectiveness of the model are validated by energy security data of A province.The results show that：the model based on entropy weight extension model can effectively monitor and analyze the situation of energy security,thus it becomes a new method for evaluating energy security.

关 键 词：能源安全评价 熵权 物元可拓模型 

分 类 号：X945[环境科学与工程—安全科学]