中国人力资本存量的再估算:1978-2011年  

The New Estimation on Human Capital in China from 1978 to 2011

作　　者：乔红芳[1,2] 沈利生[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,362021 [2]闽南师范大学商学院,363000 [3]华侨大学数量经济研究院,362021 [4]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,100732

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2015年第7期36-45,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目:中国潜在经济增长率计算及结构转换路径研究(12&ZD197);闽南师范大学杰出青年科研人才培育计划(SJ14001)的资助

摘　　要：该文采用成本加权法估算了中国1978-2011年的人力资本存量,并对此种估算方法作出了两点改进:一是将人力资本投资的成本确定为直接教育、医疗保健及文教娱乐支出;二是引入了教育投资时滞概念,从而客观地还原了各年龄不同学历层次劳动者的真实教育成本。结果表明:2011年中国的人力资本存量已达到83688.03亿元人民币,年均增长率为10.06%;劳均人力资本存量达到10951.06元人民币,年均增长率为8%,低于人力资本存量增长率;1978-2011年间人力资本产出效率波动较大,尤其是2008年金融危机之后中国人力资本产出的效率开始急剧下降。Based on the summarization and evaluation of the relevant literatures, this article chooses cost weighted method to estimate the human capital stock in China from 1978 to 2011. And it makes some improvement as follows. Firstly, this paper expands the cost range of human capital investment including the direct educational expenditure, health care expenditure and culture and entertainment expenditure. Secondly, the authors consider the educational investment lags and restore the real educational cost of the workers of each age and different educational levels. The results show that human capital stock had reached 836880 million by 2011 and grew at 10. 06% averagely. The per capita human capital stock kept a slower average growth rate of 8%. During this period, the human capital stock-product ratio fluctuated frequently and declined considerably since the financial crisis of 2008.

关 键 词：人力资本存量 成本加权法 教育投资时滞 医疗保健支出 文教娱乐支出 

分 类 号：F249.21[经济管理—劳动经济]