基于系统动力学的“单独二孩”政策仿真研究  

“Separate Two-Child” Policy Research based on System Dynamics Simulation

作　　者：阮雅婕[1] 司晓悦[1] 宋丽滢 唐亚雯 

机构地区：[1]东北大学文法学院,辽宁沈阳110004

出　　处：《人口学刊》2015年第5期5-17,共13页Population Journal

基　　金：第十四届(2015年)"挑战杯"全国大学生课外学术科技作品竞赛小组研究成果(1420116)

摘　　要：目前中国的总和生育率约为1.4,而国际上公认的合理的总和生育率应为2.1左右,加上当前老龄化问题突出,国家推出了"单独二孩"政策,政策效果如何亟待研究。本文通过系统动力学模型对"单独二孩"政策进行仿真实验,发现在此政策下新出生的二孩数量并不能实质性地改变中国的人口结构,为解决当前面临的问题,我们又做了全面放开二孩政策的比对试验,结果发现在全面放开的情况下出生人数增长较快,年末总人数有所增长但不会出现爆炸式增长情况。总体来说,在当前形势下,全面放开二孩政策的作用比单独二孩政策大。所以建议将"单独二孩"政策过渡到"全面放开二孩",在此基础上通过配套措施解决育儿成本过高、申请手续复杂等社会问题,同时通过宣传教育等改变经济理性环境下享乐主义等不健康的育儿观念,将我国的总和生育率恢复到应有水平。At present, China＇ s total fertility rate of about 1.4, and the intemationally recognized reasonable total fertility rate should be 2.1 or so, and the aging problem is prominent, countries adapt to the situation to launch the ＂separate two-child＂ policy, the policy effect, it is necessary to research the how on earth based on the system dynamics model for simulation experiment was carried out on the ＂separate two-child＂ policy, and found a new born child number 2 under this policy is no substantive change China＇ s population structure, solve the current problems we are facing, and at the same time, we made the comprehensive open- ing of child policy comparison test, the results showed that under the condition of full liberalization, births is growing rapidly, at the end of the explosive growth in the total number is increased but not, in general, in the current situation, to solve the population problem out two child policy role than separate two child policy. So we suggest that the ＂separate two-child＂ policy to ＂open up 2 children＂, on the basis of the necessary measures to solve social problems such as high cost of child-rearing, application procedure complex, through publicity and education and so on change under the environment of economic rationality at the same time hedonism and other unhealthy parenting,the restoration of China＇ s total fertility rate to a due level.

关 键 词：单独二孩 人口预测 系统动力学 生育率 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]