基于多变量M-K检验的北江流域降水趋势分析  

Trend Analysis of Precipitation in Beijiang River Basin Based on Multivariate Mann-Kendall Test

作　　者：王乐[1] 刘德地[1] 李天元[1] 王家生[2] 李凌云[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]长江科学院河流研究所,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水文》2015年第4期85-90,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51379148);国家科技支撑计划(2012BAK27B01-08;2013BAD07B10-3)

摘　　要：降水是北江流域水资源的主要来源,因此研究北江流域降水趋势有利于水资源合理规划和实现可持续利用,但目前的趋势分析主要以单变量趋势检验为主,对多变量的趋势分析研究较少。基于此,分别采用单变量和多变量M-K检验趋势分析方法,针对北江流域6个代表性气象站点1959～2009年逐日降水资料,以各站的年降水量、年降水天数和年最大降水量三个变量为主要研究对象,分析得到北江流域的降水变化整体趋势。结果表明,仁化站、韶关站、乐昌站、连州站和广宁站的变化趋势不显著,清远站的变化趋势显著。在整体趋势分析方面,多变量趋势分析方法可同时考虑降水的多重属性特点,从而可更好分析流域降水整体趋势。Precipitation is the main source of water resources in the Beijiang River Basin, so studing the changing trend of precipitation is essential to appropriate planning and permanent utilization of water resources. However, the present trend analysis is mainly based on univariate trend test while the multivariate method is rarely applied. Therefore, this paper applied the univariate and multivariate Mann-Kendall trend test method to analyze and obtain the whole trend of the precipitation in the Beijiang River Basin. The input data were extracted from the daily precipitation at 6 representative meteorological stations of the Beijiang River Basin from 1959 to 2009, with the 3 characteristics （the annual precipitation, annual precipitation days and annual peak precipitation） being analyzed specifically. The results indicate that insignificant trend was detected at the stations of Renhua, Shaoguan, Lechang, Lianzhou and Guangning, while significant one detected at Qingyuan station. In the overall trend analysis, multivariate trend test methods can take into account the multiple attributes and characteristics of precipitation, which can better canture the whole precipitation trend of precipitation of the basin.

关 键 词：降水 多变量趋势分析 MANN-KENDALL检验 北江流域 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]