中国建筑业CO_2排放与产值、能耗的脱钩分析  

Disconnect Analysis Between CO_2 Emission Output Value and Energy Consumption of China Construction

作　　者：胡颖[1] 诸大建[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第8期50-57,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于稳态经济理论的低碳竞争力研究"(编号:71173157);国家社会科学基金项目"中国低碳发展的评价指标研究"(编号:11AZD102)

摘　　要：减少CO2排放是全球以及我国应对气候变暖的最有效措施。建筑业是环境污染和CO2排放的主要部门之一,是减少CO2排放的重点对象。本文采用排放系数法计算了1996-2012年我国建筑业的CO2排放量,并基于脱钩理论分析了我国建筑业CO2排放与建筑业产值、能源消耗的脱钩情况,利用LMDI分解模型对我国建筑业CO2排放的影响因素进行了分解,结果表明:我国建筑业能耗和CO2排放1996-2012年可分为三个阶段:降低阶段(1996-1997年)、稳定增长阶段(1998-2007年)、快速增长阶段(2008-2012年)。1996-2012年我国建筑业的能耗、产值、CO2排放在总量上均有了一定的增长,能耗从1334.5万t标准煤增加到6 167.37万t标准煤;产值从8 955.23亿元增加到156 610.24亿元;CO2排放从1 879.530 3万t涨到4 756.864 8万t。1996-2012年建筑业CO2排放量与建筑业产值之间大部分时间呈现弱脱钩状态,建筑业能源消耗与建筑业产值之间整体大部分时间也呈现弱脱钩状态,建筑业CO2排放与能源消耗之间慢慢呈现出强脱钩状态。依据研究结果给出如下建议:1做好建筑业CO2排放及能耗的实时监控,大力应用新型能源及技术,运用排放系数小或者零排放的能源材料替代排放大的能源材料,优化建筑业能源消耗结构;2加大对建筑技术的开发以及建筑业机械化进程的投入;3加强对从业人员节能减排意识的培养。Reducing CO2 emission was the most useful measure to solve climate warming. Construction industry was one of the main industrial sectors that needs to reduce CO2 emission and environment pollution. This paper used the IPCC method to calculate CO2 emissions of chinese construction industry from 1996 to 2012, then analyzed deeoupling state among Chinese construction CO2 emissions, output and energy consumption based on decoupling theory, and finally decomposed influencing factors of Chinese construction industry CO2 emissions using LMDI model. The results showed that both CO2 emissions and energy consumption of Chinese construction industry 1996 -2012 can be divided into three stages. The first stage is the reducing stage in 1996 - 1997. The second stage is the stable growth stage in 1998 -2007. The third stage is the rapid growth stage in 2008 -2012. Between 1996 and 2012, the energy consumption of Chinese construction industry increased from 13. 345 million ton standard coal to 61. 673 7million ton standard coal, the output value of Chinese construction increased from 895. 523 billion RMB to 15 661. 024 billion RMB, the CO2 emissions of Chinese construction industry increased from 18. 795 303 million ton to 47. 568 648 million ton. Deeoupling state between Chinese construction industry CO2 emissions and construction industry output value were mostly weak ; so was the decoupling state between Chinese construction industry energy consumption and construction industry output value. Deeoupling state between Chinese construction industry CO2 emissions and Chinese construction industry energy consumption were becoming strong. According to the research, there are some suggestions to reduce Chinese construction industry CO2 emissions： （1） Monitoring the CO2 emissions of Chinese construction industry, practicing new energy, replacing the old energy and optimizing energy structure; （2） increasing the investment of developing construction technology and mechanization of Chinese construction industry; （3） incre

关 键 词：建筑业 CO2排放 脱钩理论 LMDI分解 

分 类 号：TU-9[建筑科学]